The Ukraine war thread
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Russian picks its negotiating team:
Naryshkin was the FSB hood who received a public bollocking from Putin three years ago when it became painfully obvious the Ukrainians were not greeting the invading Russian troops with bread and salt offerings.
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The rare earths are primarily concentrated in the Donbas region under Russian control. However there are also deposits in the annexed but as yet unoccupied regions of Zaporizhie. Yeah, it’s a snag alright.
Map:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aF3c3/2/
More information on topic:
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I doubt the deal, if it were to go through, would make it a vassal state of the US. Rather, how would such an arrangement affect Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU down the road. The devil is in details of the US proposal. At this stage it is not clear what the US wants or how it will get Putin out of the occupied regions where the rare earths are located.
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True enough however if their mission is only to safeguard the mining operations how credible a deterrent to any future Russian aggression is that?
Until the details of any proposal are made public, it is all pure speculation. My suspicion at this point is that the US proposal presented would essentially assign the US unfettered sovereignty over the land, subsurface mineral rights and all infrastructure within the boundaries of any concessions. There could be as well provisions for free transportation corridors through Ukrainian territory to ports and border crossings. Effectively, a conglomerate of Cold War era American sector West Berlins but outside the scope of the NATO treaty.
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I listened to an interview on satellite radio this afternoon with the Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski ( Anne Apelbaum’s spouse). Sharp guy, a real no nonsense statesman - reminds me of the late George Schulz with a touch of Gromyko’s poker face approach to diplomacy. Certainly knows the Russian mentality and his statements gave me confidence in what is unfolding. Putin might just find himself in check mate if he doesn’t negotiate in good faith and offer up Ukrainian territory.
In the last few hours Starmer has offered British troops for deployment to Ukraine. Expect Poland and even France and others to follow in the next few days.
We don’t know what all is on the agenda in Saudi Arabia. Of course Ukraine is on the agenda but you can be rest assured so is Iran and other Russian assets in the ME. Maybe even the Norks. There is a sound reason Europe is not invited.
Putin’s hand is weak and if he again doubles down that hand will get even weaker.
The goal at this point is a firm armistice and a long stable Cold War.
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In 91 I was saying the celebrations of the USSR demise were premature, that the world was in fact less stable, more dangerous than before. That has proven true.
It had greater potential promise as well, but that did not materialize. At least not yet.
I’ll look for that interview. We will never get that kind of nuance from the White House.
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In 91 I was saying the celebrations of the USSR demise were premature, that the world was in fact less stable, more dangerous than before. That has proven true.
It had greater potential promise as well, but that did not materialize. At least not yet.
I’ll look for that interview. We will never get that kind of nuance from the White House.
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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As long as Ukraine is in a state of martial law there will no presidential election. That much is written into Ukraine’s constitution. Any talk of it by either Moscow or Washington is unwarranted grandstanding at this time.
All today’s meeting accomplished was an agreement to reestablish diplomatic channels to facilitate the negotiation process. Along with the standard Kremlin line of bald face lies and distortions, I really didn’t get much out of Lavrov’s presser other than Russia’s demands of all parties remain unmitigated and every bit as harsh and punitive as they were three years ago. Perhaps even harsher. Russia continues to insist that it is the sole victim in this war.
Rubio is right, this is going to be a long and hard negotiation. It could break down at any point.
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I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
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I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
At this point neither the US or Russia have ambassadors or a full working compliment in their respective embassies. Normal diplomatic channels between the two have been pretty much severed for the last three years. The US and Russia are therefore just trying to set up a diplomatic framework then to proceed towards a negotiation process. Once that process has been determined then I should think Ukraine will become a party to the negotiations.
Russia remains determined to receive Ukraine’s total capitulation. It stop at nothing to get Washington to agree to Russia’s absolute terms throughout the process.
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
Ukraine is staggering. They lowered their draft age from 27 to 25 about a year ago and stepped up recruitment efforts in the 18-24 range. They had around 8.7M draft age men when Russia invaded, now they have less than 5M ( due both to combat injuries and males who have fled the country). Ukraine has around 65K women volunteers in their armed services.
Russia has a larger population from which to draw. In the last twelve months, some sources state they've drafted about 280,000 men. They are also recruiting soldiers in occupied Ukraine. Ukraine claims Russia has lost 833,000 soldiers in the war.
Currently, it's February and conditions are not good for big offensive maneuvers, but when it dries up in the spring, I'm predicting a sizeable Russian push.
