It’s starting

[jon-nyc]

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

PA is basically a coin toss according to the polls, and all the battlegrounds are within the
margin of error. Trump beat the margin of error two elections in a row.

[Horace]

That checks out. Trump is marginal, and also an error.

[jon-nyc]

I went ahead and subscribed for two months.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

There's a lot of coast in Illinois, just no elites.

[Doctor Phibes]

This post is deleted!

[Mik]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s starting:

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

There's a lot of coast in Illinois, just no elites.

You should see Michigan.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Mik said in It’s starting:

You should see Michigan.

The comparison between Michigan and its neighbour Ontario makes me question whether 'An armed society is a polite society' isn't over-stating things a little.

[Axtremus]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

I went ahead and subscribed for two months.

Nate wins!

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

Have you ever visited Rhode Island?

Refusing to sleep with blood relatives when there's an R in the month doesn't make one an elite.

[89th]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Trump beat the margin of error two elections in a row.

That's important to remember. Anytime I see headlines about models showing Kamala winning, I get flashbacks of the other cackling gal in 2016...

[LuFins Dad]

And Joe was between 4-7 points ahead before 2020.

[Jolly]

speaking of Hillary...

On the 2.17 Bongino podcast, he talks about line-of-sight sniper threats and about the three ring Secret Service security zones. He said that it has long been known about the Iranians and their wish to assassinate a President or high-ranking, high-profile, American official. So, while he was in the protection details, they worried about this stuff all the time.

One such worry was a Hillary speaking engagement. Too much glass, too many elevated positions with line-of-sight to the podium. Then one agent had a bright idea...It was winter! The Secret Service bought every can of fake, canned snow they could get their hands on and coated every piece of glass until you couldn't see through it.

Problem solved.

[jon-nyc]

Looks kinda like a Haitian jaw, clamping down on a tabby.

[Mik]

If you look at it the other way it’s a cat eating escargot.

[George K]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

if she continues to stay in her basement.

[89th]

Strategery? Trump and Vance have had a few blunders, so maybe it's a wise strategy to let the enemy defeat itself?

[Horace]

It's less to do with the opposition and more to do with her. They don't want her making any blunders. They are checking and calling all the bets and we'll see how the hands compare in November.

[taiwan_girl]

Agree with 89 and Horace. When the Democrats best campaigner is President Trump, why change a strategy that works?

And if the polling trends more in favor of VP Harris, that "forces" President Trump to talk more, which, based on past history, will result in more stupid verbal talking.

He is his own worst enemy.

[jon-nyc]

A populist might say "good for her". Speak directly to the people where they're at - social media. Letting elite journalists mediate your messaging to voters is so 2005.