It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

The first poll post-debate showed Kamala got the win, but Trump improved his position by .5% https://nypost.com/2024/09/11/us-news/kamala-harris-opens-up-narrow-lead-over-donald-trump-post-philadelphia-debate/

[jon-nyc]

https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/post/298943

[89th]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

lol

Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.

Maybe now that Trump will be sentenced for his felony conviction a few weeks after the election? If he was sent to prison in late September, I bet Vance's odds would've gone up.

[Jolly]

If Trump wins, what is his sentence?

[Horace]

It's an unestablished precedent, whether a president can pardon himself. I believe Roberts mentioned that the court has "luckily" never faced a need to make that decision.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in It’s starting:

It's an unestablished precedent, whether a president can pardon himself. I believe Roberts mentioned that the court has "luckily" never faced a need to make that decision.

Moot question in this particular case - this is a state charge.

[jon-nyc]

I can’t imagine his sentence would ever include jail time.

But maybe the judge could craft a suicide order under the guise of community service?

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

I can’t imagine his sentence would ever include jail time.

But maybe the judge could craft a suicide order under the guise of community service?

I can.

TDS is a strong emotion.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

TDS is a strong emotion.

And a useful diversionary tool.

[LuFins Dad]

Just imagine how bad it would have been if Donald had performed well in the debate…

[jon-nyc]

Where’s that from? Nate has Harris ahead in PA, WI, MI, and NV.

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Just imagine how bad it would have been if Donald had performed well in the debate…

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Where’s that from? Nate has Harris ahead in PA, WI, MI, and NV.

Yeah, he updated the models 15 minutes after I posted. I think it’s Kamala 50, Trump 47, and a 3% chance of a split?

[jon-nyc]

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

PA is basically a coin toss according to the polls, and all the battlegrounds are within the
margin of error. Trump beat the margin of error two elections in a row.

[Horace]

That checks out. Trump is marginal, and also an error.

[jon-nyc]

I went ahead and subscribed for two months.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

There's a lot of coast in Illinois, just no elites.

[Doctor Phibes]

This post is deleted!

[Mik]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s starting:

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

There's a lot of coast in Illinois, just no elites.

You should see Michigan.