It’s starting

[Jolly]

Kinda expected that.

I think you see them tighten back up, if she continues to stay in her basement.

BTW, notice the behavior of the two candidates? After the debate, Trump left for the spin room and talked awhile. Kamala-lama-ding-dong went directly to her limo and left.

[jon-nyc]

The daily show link shows a montage of him claiming polls say he won 92-7 or something.

[Doctor Phibes]

If you listen to him, Trump has never lost anything in his entire life.

Considering how awesome he is, it's a little hard to understand why he always looks so bloody miserable.

He's fatter bigger than Jesus!

[LuFins Dad]

Ayup. Good week for Kamala. Will be interesting to see how much it affects the polls next week.

[LuFins Dad]

The first poll post-debate showed Kamala got the win, but Trump improved his position by .5% https://nypost.com/2024/09/11/us-news/kamala-harris-opens-up-narrow-lead-over-donald-trump-post-philadelphia-debate/

[jon-nyc]

https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/post/298943

[89th]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

lol

Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.

Maybe now that Trump will be sentenced for his felony conviction a few weeks after the election? If he was sent to prison in late September, I bet Vance's odds would've gone up.

[Jolly]

If Trump wins, what is his sentence?

[Horace]

It's an unestablished precedent, whether a president can pardon himself. I believe Roberts mentioned that the court has "luckily" never faced a need to make that decision.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in It’s starting:

It's an unestablished precedent, whether a president can pardon himself. I believe Roberts mentioned that the court has "luckily" never faced a need to make that decision.

Moot question in this particular case - this is a state charge.

[jon-nyc]

I can’t imagine his sentence would ever include jail time.

But maybe the judge could craft a suicide order under the guise of community service?

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

I can’t imagine his sentence would ever include jail time.

But maybe the judge could craft a suicide order under the guise of community service?

I can.

TDS is a strong emotion.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

TDS is a strong emotion.

And a useful diversionary tool.

[LuFins Dad]

Just imagine how bad it would have been if Donald had performed well in the debate…

[jon-nyc]

Where’s that from? Nate has Harris ahead in PA, WI, MI, and NV.

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Just imagine how bad it would have been if Donald had performed well in the debate…

With the exception of four states, the very definition of "coastal elites".

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Where’s that from? Nate has Harris ahead in PA, WI, MI, and NV.

Yeah, he updated the models 15 minutes after I posted. I think it’s Kamala 50, Trump 47, and a 3% chance of a split?

[jon-nyc]

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

That would put the electoral count in the blue.

Though I think his model assumes some latent level of redward shift over time so maybe not. When he first started posting projections favoring Trump he hinted that if the polls stay the same the model becomes more blue friendly.

PA is basically a coin toss according to the polls, and all the battlegrounds are within the
margin of error. Trump beat the margin of error two elections in a row.

[Horace]

That checks out. Trump is marginal, and also an error.