Nikki's Last Stand?

[Jolly]

Right now, with about half the vote in, Trump has about a 12 point lead on Haley and is the projected winner.

[Mik]

Which is significantly better than Iowa. Let’s see what happens in SC.

[Jolly]

She's getting thumped by 15.

[Mik]

See prior post.

[89th]

She is projected to lose big in SC, but who knows... her speech tonight is truth summarized so nicely. You might like Trump, but you can't ignore this analysis:

See 6:25:

Link to video

HALEY: With Donald Trump. Republicans have lost almost every competitive election. We lost the Senate. We lost the House. We lost the White House. We lost in 2018. We lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022. The worst-kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump.

CROWD: Trump’s a loser! He’s a loser!

HALEY: They know Trump is the only Republican in the country who Joe Biden can defeat. You can’t fix the mess if you don’t win an election. A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency. I defeat Biden handily. With Donald Trump, you have one bout of chaos after another. This court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. You can’t fix Joe Biden’s chaos with Republican chaos.

[Horace]

Sounds about right. Though I’m not convinced Trump’s loss in the general is so likely. I don’t doubt Haley fares better in the general though.

[89th]

@Jolly said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

She's getting thumped by 15.

Not all results are in, but it looks like most of DeSantis' voters went with Haley.

Before he dropped out:

And tonight it looks like it's Trump 54% and Haley 44%.

[Jolly]

I predict she loses by 15 in South Carolina. Nikki might make it to Super Tuesday, but I think she gets whipped pretty good across the board on that day.

[89th]

I bet she loses by more than 15. Hard to stay in the race with a loss like than in her home state. Maybe she is playing the “what if Trump is jailed” card and staying in?

Either way, looks like almost all DeSantis voters went to Nikki. Not a good sign for Trump’s enthusiasm base come November. Could be wrong.

[George K]

@89th said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

Either way, looks like almost all DeSantis voters went to Nikki. Not a good sign for Trump’s enthusiasm base come November.

Good point.

OTOH, do you think DeSantis' base will vote for Sleepy Joe, or just resign themselves to another 4 years of destroying democracy and sit it out.

[Jolly]

Read the thread on the CNN exit interviews. Trump's vote was not just MAGA voters.

[Doctor Phibes]

The funny thing about American elections is that for some reason they can't just have one election. There seems to be hundreds of them.

And apparently every single one of them tells us something vital about what's going to happen in November.

[Jolly]

When you've lost Slate...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/01/new-hampshire-primary-results-nikki-haley-donald-trump.html

[George K]

[Jolly]

Scott is going to get more than that (if Trump is reelected) and Hume knows it.

[Doctor Phibes]

I don't think I can face 4 years of Vivek.

An Asian woman in the UK commented that he was like Rishi Sunak's boastful cousin that nobody could stand who totally monopolised family get-togethers.

[Horace]

Vivek should be press secretary.

[LuFins Dad]

Guys, why are we even debating this? It’s over as far as the primaries go. The only questions remaining are:

1. Will a viable independent option come forward?

2. Will some type of shenanigans occur at either/both of the conventions?

3. Will any of the legal cases wind up actually damaging either candidate? Georgia for Trump, and the Hunter trial for Biden. Not that Biden is in danger of jail, but enough could come out that the party decides they need somebody else.

4. The physical threats to the candidates.

[Jolly]

@LuFins-Dad said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

Guys, why are we even debating this? It’s over as far as the primaries go. The only questions remaining are:

1. Will a viable independent option come forward?

2. Will some type of shenanigans occur at either/both of the conventions?

3. Will any of the legal cases wind up actually damaging either candidate? Georgia for Trump, and the Hunter trial for Biden. Not that Biden is in danger of jail, but enough could come out that the party decides they need somebody else.

4. The physical threats to the candidates.

1. No.
2. Trump said he thought Biden would not be running in the fall. I think a lot of people have the same opinion. If Biden is replaced on the ticket, it will be at the convention.
3. I'm going to crawl out on a limb and say no.
4. Very concerning and highly likely.

[Mik]

@Doctor-Phibes said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

I don't think I can face 4 years of Vivek.

An Asian woman in the UK commented that he was like Rishi Sunak's boastful cousin that nobody could stand who totally monopolised family get-togethers.

I don't think Ramaswamy will be the VP. He's not well liked and my impression is his ambition exceeds his loyalty. trump will not trust him. Add in the black vote and it's Scott.