Nikki's Last Stand?

[89th]

I agree with the opening - that if it was Ron vs Don, it would've been a closer race, but the anti-Don votes were fragmented, and here we are.

I disagree, however, that Nikki staying in (even for NH) is a bad idea. The author claims it'll "make it harder for the party to unite behind Trump in November".

Sorry, but I don't see that. Those who will vote for Trump in November already know it, whether Nikki tries a few more times in various states will not change Trump's vote count in November. As I've said before, I don't think Trump has earned any new votes since his 2020 loss and temper tantrum, so I'm not sure how he'd win again even if there is a lower turnout on both sides.

I'd imagine Nikki will stay in until at least South Carolina and if she gets crushed in her home state, I think she'll then exit the stage.

[Jolly]

Then try this piece from The Spectator:

https://thespectator.com/politics/fall-nikki-haley-comet-trump-2024/

[89th]

LOL the excuses start already?

[Jolly]

That's not an excuse, it's just a pretty decent observation.

[Rich]

eh, if he couldn't withstand a mediocre primary challenge, then then how could we expect him to hold up to the general...when on a good day there's so much more firing against him. As it is...this is almost too easy.

[taiwan_girl]

@89th said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

I don't think Trump has earned any new votes since his 2020 loss

This. President Trump has a very strong base, but that is not what will decide the election.

It is the middle of the road people who have to be convinced and I am not sure President Trump has done that.

As has been mentioned here many many times, people have short memories. The election is still a year off. I think inflation news will die down in the US, stock market is at record high, I think President Biden will take some pretty strong steps on teh border, etc.

[Horace]

The younger generation loves Trump. Almost everybody who came of voting age between 2021 and 2024 is voting Trump. Meanwhile, all the elderly Biden voters who died during that time of mask suffocation or vaccine complications, are off the rolls.

[Copper]

@Horace said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

The younger generation loves Trump.

Everyone does, it is a shame that so many pretend that they don't.

[Jolly]

Right now, with about half the vote in, Trump has about a 12 point lead on Haley and is the projected winner.

[Mik]

Which is significantly better than Iowa. Let’s see what happens in SC.

[Jolly]

She's getting thumped by 15.

[Mik]

See prior post.

[89th]

She is projected to lose big in SC, but who knows... her speech tonight is truth summarized so nicely. You might like Trump, but you can't ignore this analysis:

See 6:25:

Link to video

HALEY: With Donald Trump. Republicans have lost almost every competitive election. We lost the Senate. We lost the House. We lost the White House. We lost in 2018. We lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022. The worst-kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump.

CROWD: Trump’s a loser! He’s a loser!

HALEY: They know Trump is the only Republican in the country who Joe Biden can defeat. You can’t fix the mess if you don’t win an election. A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency. I defeat Biden handily. With Donald Trump, you have one bout of chaos after another. This court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. You can’t fix Joe Biden’s chaos with Republican chaos.

[Horace]

Sounds about right. Though I’m not convinced Trump’s loss in the general is so likely. I don’t doubt Haley fares better in the general though.

[89th]

@Jolly said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

She's getting thumped by 15.

Not all results are in, but it looks like most of DeSantis' voters went with Haley.

Before he dropped out:

And tonight it looks like it's Trump 54% and Haley 44%.

[Jolly]

I predict she loses by 15 in South Carolina. Nikki might make it to Super Tuesday, but I think she gets whipped pretty good across the board on that day.

[89th]

I bet she loses by more than 15. Hard to stay in the race with a loss like than in her home state. Maybe she is playing the “what if Trump is jailed” card and staying in?

Either way, looks like almost all DeSantis voters went to Nikki. Not a good sign for Trump’s enthusiasm base come November. Could be wrong.

[George K]

@89th said in Nikki's Last Stand?:

Either way, looks like almost all DeSantis voters went to Nikki. Not a good sign for Trump’s enthusiasm base come November.

Good point.

OTOH, do you think DeSantis' base will vote for Sleepy Joe, or just resign themselves to another 4 years of destroying democracy and sit it out.

[Jolly]

Read the thread on the CNN exit interviews. Trump's vote was not just MAGA voters.

[Doctor Phibes]

The funny thing about American elections is that for some reason they can't just have one election. There seems to be hundreds of them.

And apparently every single one of them tells us something vital about what's going to happen in November.