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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. How about that market?

How about that market?

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  • 8 Offline
    8 Offline
    89th
    wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 21:10 last edited by
    #27

    Haha predictable.

    G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Jun 2020, 21:38
    • 8 89th
      5 Jun 2020, 21:10

      Haha predictable.

      G Offline
      G Offline
      George K
      wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 21:38 last edited by
      #28

      @89th said in How about that market?:

      Haha predictable.

      Yeah, of course it was.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • M Offline
        M Offline
        Mik
        wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 23:29 last edited by
        #29

        The exception would prove the rule, if there would ever happen to be one.

        I won’t hold my breath.

        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J Online
          J Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 05:19 last edited by
          #30

          Oops

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          A L L 3 Replies Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 09:59
          • J jon-nyc
            6 Jun 2020, 05:19

            Oops

            A Offline
            A Offline
            Axtremus
            wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 09:59 last edited by
            #31

            @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

            Oops

            Yeah, saw that one. It’s an unusual, fast changing situation. At this point, I quite believe that there is no malice, and the BLS is doing the best it can.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Online
              J Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 10:35 last edited by
              #32

              Yeah, for sure.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              1 Reply Last reply
              • J jon-nyc
                6 Jun 2020, 05:19

                Oops

                L Offline
                L Offline
                Loki
                wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 11:46 last edited by
                #33

                @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                Oops

                God that article sucks in so many ways. What a disgrace.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • 8 Offline
                  8 Offline
                  89th
                  wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 11:50 last edited by
                  #34

                  Now we just need an article blaming common core math.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • G Offline
                    G Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:01 last edited by
                    #35

                    What am I missing here?

                    The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                    But the absolutions number of jobs did increase, right?

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    H 1 Reply Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 13:48
                    • G George K
                      6 Jun 2020, 13:01

                      What am I missing here?

                      The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                      But the absolutions number of jobs did increase, right?

                      H Offline
                      H Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:48 last edited by Horace 6 Jun 2020, 13:53
                      #36

                      @George-K said in How about that market?:

                      What am I missing here?

                      The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                      But the absolute number of jobs did increase, right?

                      Yes. The real numbers were about half as much of an improvement as the wrong numbers were.

                      Edit: I mean the difference between predictions and the real numbers was about half as good. I'm not sure about absolute job numbers, but unemployment did go up.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • H Offline
                        H Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:52 last edited by
                        #37

                        “You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”

                        I think it's a legitimate concern that Trump falsified these job numbers.

                        Education is extremely important.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Online
                          J Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:04 last edited by
                          #38

                          I don’t.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • H Offline
                            H Offline
                            Horace
                            wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:17 last edited by
                            #39

                            I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                            Education is extremely important.

                            J 1 Reply Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 15:50
                            • L Offline
                              L Offline
                              Loki
                              wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:34 last edited by
                              #40

                              The market had baked in the correction Friday. The story is bogus.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • H Horace
                                6 Jun 2020, 15:17

                                I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                                J Online
                                J Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:50 last edited by
                                #41

                                @Horace said in How about that market?:

                                I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                                Yep. Both on the incentives and the mechanisms available.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • H Offline
                                  H Offline
                                  Horace
                                  wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 16:05 last edited by
                                  #42

                                  The tail risk analysis science has spoken. Maybe Taleb is finding a way to bet on 20 years of president Trump as we speak. Or maybe he's betting that Trump fudged the jobs report, only at way higher odds.

                                  Education is extremely important.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • J jon-nyc
                                    4 Jun 2020, 20:48

                                    Down a little more than that, but I can't tell for sure because I didn't mark the 2/19 high. I only save monthly snapshots. I'm down 4.2% from my peak month-end, which was 12/31.

                                    L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 00:05 last edited by
                                    #43

                                    @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                                    Down a little more than that, but I can't tell for sure because I didn't mark the 2/19 high. I only save monthly snapshots. I'm down 4.2% from my peak month-end, which was 12/31.

                                    So I finally checked, I’m actually up 12.6% over my peak (12/31 too).

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • J Online
                                      J Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 01:04 last edited by
                                      #44

                                      Wow, some good timing on purchases or rebalancing?

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      8 1 Reply Last reply 7 Jun 2020, 02:52
                                      • L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 01:38 last edited by
                                        #45

                                        Nothing intentional, though I did put a little into RBGLY (Lysol) in March. They normally trade at $17, but for some reason had dropped to $12 in March. I figured their revenues were going to be through the roof, so why not?) they are trading at $17 again, so that was nice but I didn’t put much in. Mostly the increase was because 12 months ago I shifted to a more aggressive mix and for whatever reason, they’ve recovered exceptionally well since my 12 month low on 3/31.

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          6 Jun 2020, 05:19

                                          Oops

                                          L Offline
                                          L Offline
                                          Larry
                                          wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 02:44 last edited by
                                          #46

                                          @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                                          Oops

                                          Lets see...

                                          The Washington Post, a rag known for consistently publishing fake news, posts a tweet before the jobs report had even come out claiming the unemployment rate was 20%. Then the jobs report comes out and the unemployment rate actually dropped, and was just over 13%. New jobs bounced higher than even the most optimistic predictions, the Washington Post quickly removes the tweet, then publishes a story about how the report was wrong and the unemployment rate was actually ....20%..

                                          Bwahahahaaaaaaaaaa

                                          Want to buy a bridge in London???

                                          BWWWAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA

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