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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. How about that market?

How about that market?

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  • K Klaus
    5 Jun 2020, 17:10

    I for one have stopped evaluating politicians in terms of how much I like their policies. I evaluate them in terms of who does the least amount of damage relative to the "null" option of doing nothing. A politician who doesn't do much and has no big goals is usually a good politician.

    H Offline
    H Offline
    Horace
    wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 17:17 last edited by
    #25

    @Klaus said in How about that market?:

    I for one have stopped evaluating politicians in terms of how much I like their policies. I evaluate them in terms of who does the least amount of damage relative to the "null" option of doing nothing. A politician who doesn't do much and has no big goals is usually a good politician.

    That would be a decent ball park definition of the difference between the left and the right. And your preference would be for the right.

    Education is extremely important.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • A Away
      A Away
      Axtremus
      wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 19:08 last edited by
      #26

      1 Reply Last reply
      • 8 Online
        8 Online
        89th
        wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 21:10 last edited by
        #27

        Haha predictable.

        G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Jun 2020, 21:38
        • 8 89th
          5 Jun 2020, 21:10

          Haha predictable.

          G Offline
          G Offline
          George K
          wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 21:38 last edited by
          #28

          @89th said in How about that market?:

          Haha predictable.

          Yeah, of course it was.

          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • M Offline
            M Offline
            Mik
            wrote on 5 Jun 2020, 23:29 last edited by
            #29

            The exception would prove the rule, if there would ever happen to be one.

            I won’t hold my breath.

            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Online
              J Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 05:19 last edited by
              #30

              Oops

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              A L L 3 Replies Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 09:59
              • J jon-nyc
                6 Jun 2020, 05:19

                Oops

                A Away
                A Away
                Axtremus
                wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 09:59 last edited by
                #31

                @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                Oops

                Yeah, saw that one. It’s an unusual, fast changing situation. At this point, I quite believe that there is no malice, and the BLS is doing the best it can.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Online
                  J Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 10:35 last edited by
                  #32

                  Yeah, for sure.

                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                  -Cormac McCarthy

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J jon-nyc
                    6 Jun 2020, 05:19

                    Oops

                    L Offline
                    L Offline
                    Loki
                    wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 11:46 last edited by
                    #33

                    @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                    Oops

                    God that article sucks in so many ways. What a disgrace.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • 8 Online
                      8 Online
                      89th
                      wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 11:50 last edited by
                      #34

                      Now we just need an article blaming common core math.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • G Offline
                        G Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:01 last edited by
                        #35

                        What am I missing here?

                        The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                        But the absolutions number of jobs did increase, right?

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        H 1 Reply Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 13:48
                        • G George K
                          6 Jun 2020, 13:01

                          What am I missing here?

                          The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                          But the absolutions number of jobs did increase, right?

                          H Offline
                          H Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:48 last edited by Horace 6 Jun 2020, 13:53
                          #36

                          @George-K said in How about that market?:

                          What am I missing here?

                          The percentage they reported was an error. I get that.

                          But the absolute number of jobs did increase, right?

                          Yes. The real numbers were about half as much of an improvement as the wrong numbers were.

                          Edit: I mean the difference between predictions and the real numbers was about half as good. I'm not sure about absolute job numbers, but unemployment did go up.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • H Offline
                            H Offline
                            Horace
                            wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 13:52 last edited by
                            #37

                            “You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”

                            I think it's a legitimate concern that Trump falsified these job numbers.

                            Education is extremely important.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J Online
                              J Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:04 last edited by
                              #38

                              I don’t.

                              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                              -Cormac McCarthy

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • H Offline
                                H Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:17 last edited by
                                #39

                                I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                J 1 Reply Last reply 6 Jun 2020, 15:50
                                • L Offline
                                  L Offline
                                  Loki
                                  wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:34 last edited by
                                  #40

                                  The market had baked in the correction Friday. The story is bogus.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • H Horace
                                    6 Jun 2020, 15:17

                                    I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                                    J Online
                                    J Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 15:50 last edited by
                                    #41

                                    @Horace said in How about that market?:

                                    I can understand how a rigorous risk analysis of all the factors and potentials involved would indicate a higher chance of Trump usurping the presidency after a legitimate election loss, than Trump fudging the jobs report.

                                    Yep. Both on the incentives and the mechanisms available.

                                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                    -Cormac McCarthy

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • H Offline
                                      H Offline
                                      Horace
                                      wrote on 6 Jun 2020, 16:05 last edited by
                                      #42

                                      The tail risk analysis science has spoken. Maybe Taleb is finding a way to bet on 20 years of president Trump as we speak. Or maybe he's betting that Trump fudged the jobs report, only at way higher odds.

                                      Education is extremely important.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • J jon-nyc
                                        4 Jun 2020, 20:48

                                        Down a little more than that, but I can't tell for sure because I didn't mark the 2/19 high. I only save monthly snapshots. I'm down 4.2% from my peak month-end, which was 12/31.

                                        L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 00:05 last edited by
                                        #43

                                        @jon-nyc said in How about that market?:

                                        Down a little more than that, but I can't tell for sure because I didn't mark the 2/19 high. I only save monthly snapshots. I'm down 4.2% from my peak month-end, which was 12/31.

                                        So I finally checked, I’m actually up 12.6% over my peak (12/31 too).

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • J Online
                                          J Online
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on 7 Jun 2020, 01:04 last edited by
                                          #44

                                          Wow, some good timing on purchases or rebalancing?

                                          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                          -Cormac McCarthy

                                          8 1 Reply Last reply 7 Jun 2020, 02:52
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