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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Inflation

Inflation

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  • George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #31

    The Fed Is the Main Inflation Culprit

    If price stability is squandered, financial stability is put at risk. If financial stability is lost, the economy is imperiled and the social contract is threatened.

    During the past several quarters, U.S. inflation has surged—now running about triple the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The surge in prices is unlikely to reverse on its own. The longer that prices are unstable, the greater the challenge to the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The last thing the country needs is its third major economic upheaval in a decade and a half.

    Inflation is a choice. It’s a choice for which the Fed is chiefly responsible. The risk of an inflationary spiral arises when policy makers first dismiss the problem and then cast blame elsewhere. Inflation becomes embedded in the price-formation process when the central bank acts belatedly or with insufficient conviction. To date, the Fed has acted as an enabler.

    In congressional testimony recently, Mr. Powell made clear he was surprised and troubled by the medium-term trajectory of inflation. At this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed seems ready to abandon its policy priors.

    Achieving a soft economic landing at this late stage is difficult. If the sole task were to drive inflation down, the Fed would immediately taper its asset purchases and start raising rates. But a significant tightening cycle would likely cause market volatility to surge and assets to reprice. The authorities have expressed little concern about financial excesses, bubbles or financial imbalances. Hope they’re right. I expect tension between the Fed’s goals of price stability and financial stability to be in sharper relief in the new year.

    Stopping QE altogether—even a few quarters ago—would have kept a lid on inflation and allowed a more measured path of rate increases. The Fed now has fewer degrees of freedom to keep the economy out of harm’s way. If the Fed doesn’t act with due speed and skill, inflation—the most regressive tax of all—will do further harm, particularly to the least well-off. If the central bank lurches into a significant, unexpected rate-rising cycle, the same hardworking Americans will bear the brunt of an economic slowdown.

    The economy—and the country—is at a critical juncture. The biggest mistake of all, however, is to underestimate America’s strengths. The U.S. economic and political system often shows less well than it performs. At present, the first obligation of policy makers is to ensure a return to price stability.

    Mr. Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, is a distinguished visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #32

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      LuFins DadL JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
      • George KG George K

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #33

        @george-k said in Inflation:

        I’d guess my prices are averaging about 12% higher than last year on the same pianos. I am sooooo greedy.

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • CopperC Offline
          CopperC Offline
          Copper
          wrote on last edited by
          #34

          As a Smithfield resident I am well aware that Smithfield Foods controls roughly 25% of the pork market.

          And Smithfield Foods is owned by Chinese.

          And 40% of Chinese hogs were killed by a swine fever last year

          Of course prices went up

          I wasn't greed, it was dead hogs

          1 Reply Last reply
          • Doctor PhibesD Offline
            Doctor PhibesD Offline
            Doctor Phibes
            wrote on last edited by
            #35

            Nobody’s getting their hands on big meat in Biden’s government

            I was only joking

            LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
            • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

              Nobody’s getting their hands on big meat in Biden’s government

              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on last edited by
              #36

              @doctor-phibes said in Inflation:

              Nobody’s getting their hands on big meat in Biden’s government

              Mayor Pete…

              The Brad

              George KG 1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                @doctor-phibes said in Inflation:

                Nobody’s getting their hands on big meat in Biden’s government

                Mayor Pete…

                George KG Offline
                George KG Offline
                George K
                wrote on last edited by
                #37

                @lufins-dad said in Inflation:

                @doctor-phibes said in Inflation:
                Nobody’s getting their hands on big meat in Biden’s government

                Mayor Pete…

                Post of the month.

                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • George KG George K

                  JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #38

                  @george-k said in Inflation:

                  Silly Psaki.

                  Yes, meat conglomerates are a problem. I've spoken before about what guys are getting for their beef. That's why a rancher -owned meat processing plant is being built in the Midwest.

                  But they're not the main problem. Ask any grain farmer about the price and scarcity of seed. The cost of fertilizer. The cost of fuel. The cost of equipment (if you can get it) and the cost of labor.

                  That's why feed has gotten so high in price. Trucks and fuel to ship cattle are more expensive. And even cowboys ain't cheap.🤠

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Jolly

                    @george-k said in Inflation:

                    Silly Psaki.

                    Yes, meat conglomerates are a problem. I've spoken before about what guys are getting for their beef. That's why a rancher -owned meat processing plant is being built in the Midwest.

                    But they're not the main problem. Ask any grain farmer about the price and scarcity of seed. The cost of fertilizer. The cost of fuel. The cost of equipment (if you can get it) and the cost of labor.

                    That's why feed has gotten so high in price. Trucks and fuel to ship cattle are more expensive. And even cowboys ain't cheap.🤠

                    George KG Offline
                    George KG Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #39

                    @jolly said in Inflation:

                    Silly Psaki.

                    Screen Shot 2021-12-14 at 6.25.13 PM.png

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • CopperC Offline
                      CopperC Offline
                      Copper
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #40

                      Conglomerates are bad

                      They probably like Trump

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #41

                        7.5%.

                        https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

                        The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

                        Increases in the indexes for food, electricity, and shelter were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent in January following a 0.5-percent increase in December. The energy
                        index also increased 0.9 percent over the month, with an increase in theelectricity index being partially offset by declines in the gasoline index and the natural gas index.

                        The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6percent in January, the same increase as in December. This was the seventh time in the last 10 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, medical care, and apparel were among many indexes that increased over the month.

                        The all items index rose 7.5 percent for the 12 months ending January, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 27.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.0 percent.

                        Screen Shot 2022-02-10 at 8.32.47 AM copy.jpg

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #42

                          Just a SWAG, but I suspect even those numbers a smidgen. I would guess closer to 10%, rather than 7.5%.

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                          • CopperC Offline
                            CopperC Offline
                            Copper
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #43

                            CPI Inflation Rate Hits Scorching 7.5%; Dow Jones Slides On Fed Rate-Hike Views

                            The consumer price index came in hotter than expected in January, as both the CPI inflation rate and the core rate, excluding food and energy, hit new 39-year highs. Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq losses deepened in Thursday afternoon stock market action as Wall Street priced in additional Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield crested 2% for the first time since August 2019 and kept on rising.

                            https://www.investors.com/news/economy/cpi-inflation-rate-hotter-than-expected-in-january-dow-jones-falls-bond-yields-rise/

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Jolly

                              Just a SWAG, but I suspect even those numbers a smidgen. I would guess closer to 10%, rather than 7.5%.

                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #44

                              @jolly said in Inflation:

                              Just a SWAG, but I suspect even those numbers a smidgen. I would guess closer to 10%, rather than 7.5%.

                              They changed the formula this month, don’t ya know?

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #45

                                Snowballing. In order to pay sales staff, technicians, and movers enough to maintain their equivalent income while also accounting for higher overhead for store supplies and higher energy costs, I have to raise my margins which will raise the prices further, and that’s before I get my price increases from the manufacturers…

                                The Brad

                                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                  Snowballing. In order to pay sales staff, technicians, and movers enough to maintain their equivalent income while also accounting for higher overhead for store supplies and higher energy costs, I have to raise my margins which will raise the prices further, and that’s before I get my price increases from the manufacturers…

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #46

                                  @lufins-dad and the fact that energy (fuel) prices are rising will only increase prices for everything that's dependent upon transportation.

                                  Which is...everything.

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • 89th8 Offline
                                    89th8 Offline
                                    89th
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #47

                                    So, what stops the snowball? Higher fed rates?

                                    CopperC LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
                                    • 89th8 89th

                                      So, what stops the snowball? Higher fed rates?

                                      CopperC Offline
                                      CopperC Offline
                                      Copper
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #48

                                      @89th said in Inflation:

                                      So, what stops the snowball? Higher fed rates?

                                      Federal price controls

                                      George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • CopperC Copper

                                        @89th said in Inflation:

                                        So, what stops the snowball? Higher fed rates?

                                        Federal price controls

                                        George KG Offline
                                        George KG Offline
                                        George K
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #49

                                        @copper said in Inflation:

                                        Federal price controls

                                        image.jpeg

                                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • CopperC Offline
                                          CopperC Offline
                                          Copper
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #50

                                          I remember

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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