@George-K
Just finished watching the YouTube video. Much better than the tortuous tweet. At least it was a coherent argument based on established facts. I would agree that some of the ethnic autonomous republics would split if the opportunity arose. His examples of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are well chosen. Both tried very hard politically and economically throughout much of the Yeltsin era to achieve independence from Moscow. Likewise the far east regions in particular, Yakutia. Then there’s the simmering, disgruntled and cowed ethnic pots in the North Caucasus. As well, there are levels of discontent in resource rich Russian regions that get very little in return from Moscow.
It’s actually a pretty good argument with which I have only a few minor quibbles other than Sumlenny’s overly optimistic view of a disintegrating Russian Federation. I really don’t see the country passively commiting suicide for the second time in fifty years. I think that if it were to happen, it would be much more violent and protracted than when the lights went out on the USSR.