The New Coffee Room

Full transparency... that's just what happened in the decade since we took out Gaddafi in Libya. I just swapped in a different leader and country

Big mistake if we even consider a ground game. Sure assassinate their leaders, and bomb the crap out of their revolutionary guard and missile sites, all opinions about that aside, you could leave the operation relatively quickly and see how the Persian dust settles?

My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:

Following Khamenei’s death in 2026, Iran descended into a prolonged, violent power struggle, transforming from a centralized state into a fractured country with rival governments, armed militias, and deep instability. A decade of civil war ensued, characterized by foreign intervention, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis, leaving it split between eastern and western factions.

Political Division: The country is divided between the UN-supported government and forces loyal to Khamenei's people, specifically their revolutionary guard. Attempts to form a unified government have largely failed to end the conflict.

Failed State Conditions: Iran has experienced severe instability, with armed militias controlling various regions, leading to a rise in human trafficking, unlawful detention, and, for a period, control by extremist groups like ISIS.

Economic Collapse: Despite having the largest oil reserves in Asia, Iran’s oil production has been frequently halted by blockades, causing extreme economic damage and infrastructure failure.

Humanitarian Crisis: The chaos has led to the displacement of citizens, a lack of basic services, and, in some cases, the discovery of mass graves.

While open conflict has reduced in recent years, the nation remains fragile, with a stalled political process and ongoing struggles over control of resources, particularly oil, in the eastern "oil crescent".

@Renauda said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:

@jon-nyc said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:

In the past 24 hours, Trump is insisting he must have a say in who is appointed to replace Khamenei and govern Iran.

Sick BURN by Iran's deputy foreign minister:

"Trump is asking for change in the leadership of Iran and he says he has to have a voice on that while he cannot even appoint the Mayor of New York"

https://www.reddit.com/r/UnderReportedNews/comments/1rmi8du/saeed_khatibzadeh_irans_deputy_foreign_minister/

We haven't declared war in 81 years. Why start now?

Don't tell that to Veterans of non-wars Afghanistan, Iraq, Korea, Vietnam...

The Atlantic released an article yesterday morning about how Trump's aides said he's going to announce his support for Cornyn and ask (Paxton) to drop out. Until then the thought (and my Kalshi bet!) was that Paxton would win in a run-off since he'd suck up most of the 3rd candidate (Hunt)'s voters.

Paxton is like Trump... scandals, impeached I think, maybe a felony or two, election sore loser and fraud believer... if Paxton were to beat Cornyn in the runoff, there's a higher chance the democrat Talarico could win, so the GOP would have to spend even more to win the seat, vs a cheaper and better odds win if it's Cornyn. Trump doesn't like to align with losers... at least not on purpose.

Bravo!

HBD! Have an avocado and egg white shake on me!

Not sure she'll be gone. Sounds like she's going to lead an American Shield thing or something, maybe a reason to use Greenland to house our SAM missile defense shit

Darn. On Kalshi I had Bondi or Nutlick being the first to go

The torpedoing of the Iranian ship might get messy. Allegedly it was invited to the waters off the coast of India along with other countries to participate in international exercises, had no ammunition on board, and was still blown out of the water by the US Navy. We'll see...

Isn’t she also banging her assistant?

hahaha

Eventually the "coding by AI" thing that Anthropic does well will be similar to the early days where "searching by Yahoo" was the way to find things on the internet.... eventually any company will be able to do it. We see it with Cursor, and Codex, and a million other coding by AI firms, it seems. I'm surprised Google doesn't have one yet, maybe it does but I'm still a n00b when it comes to prompt jockey skills, especially compared to @horace !

I saw that, guess they need to start adding "except by death" exceptions in the rules when predicting when people will be out of power.

I'm enjoying using Kalshi, mostly for golf bets. Like most golfers have a 1-2% chance of winning any given tournament (the favorites can get near 10-15% chance) so if I put $3 on someone, I could make $150 if they win, so it's fun to put it on a few favorite players each tournament. I've won a few of the bets. I've lost a few stupid ones too, like the state of the union I bet he'd say SAVE Act, but he said SAVE America Act, so I lost that bet (boo!) and earlier I put a bet that Paxton would be the nominee (Hunt's voters would go to Paxton, who would be Corbyn in a runoff) but of course after I put that bet, it was leaked that Trump would endorse Corbyn and ask Paxton to drop out. Luckily I was able to "cash out my bet" on that but of course lost about 2/3 of the value by then. I think I'll stick to the fun and small golf bets.

I missed you getting married too. What’s his name?

Quite a wide menu for 4 people!

Odd, Trump in December said "we have taken in literally trillions of dollars in tariffs" in response to this being one of the biggest tax refund seasons of all time.

So was he lying or should another judge order the refund of these trillions of dollars?

lol

Good. My hope is the military intel is smarter than the average public Joe…aka they know how many bullets Iran has left. “Are you feeling lucky?”