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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. NYC is ground zero

NYC is ground zero

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    Just today I thought I'd list the next 10. Threw in some counties that might be of interest were they fit in between the states. Skipped various NJ counties, because, well, NJ.

    11: GA - 32,162
    Westchester
    Los Angeles County

    12: LA - 30,855
    13: MD - 30,485
    14: IN - 23,146
    15: OH - 23,016
    16: VA - 22,342
    17: CO - 18,371
    Wayne Co Michigan (Detroit)
    Philadelphia County (Philly)
    Middlesex County MA (not Boston but adjacent)

    18: WA - 16,231
    Suffolk County MA (Boston)
    19: TN - 14,452
    20: NC - 13.953

    Observations:

    • GA is fewer than 300 cases behind CT, the current #10. I haven't tracked growth here but it wouldn't surprise me to see it move into the top 10 at some point.

    • WA has done pretty well. They used to be worst hit.

    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
    #109

    @jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

    11: GA - 32,162
    12: LA - 30,855
    13: MD - 30,485
    14: IN - 23,146
    15: OH - 23,016
    16: VA - 22,342
    17: CO - 18,371
    18: WA - 16,231
    19: TN - 14,452
    20: NC - 13.953

    The above are #s 11-20 from 8 days ago. Thought I'd check in again to see how the rankings have changed.

    (Percentages are compound DAILY growth rates.)

    11: GA - 37,161 - 1.8%
    12: CT - 36,703 - 1.6% (was in top 10 last week)
    13: LA - 34,117 - 1.3%
    14: VA - 29,683 - 3.6%
    15: OH - 27,474 - 2.2%
    16: IN - 27,280 - 2.1%
    17: CO - 21,232 - 1.8%
    18: NC - 18,101 - 3.3%
    19: WA - 17,951 - 1.3%
    20: TN - 17,265 - 2.2%

    NC and VA are the two that climbed in rankings (and MD, which is in top 10 now), and you can see their growth is a full % point or more above the others.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      @jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

      11: GA - 32,162
      12: LA - 30,855
      13: MD - 30,485
      14: IN - 23,146
      15: OH - 23,016
      16: VA - 22,342
      17: CO - 18,371
      18: WA - 16,231
      19: TN - 14,452
      20: NC - 13.953

      The above are #s 11-20 from 8 days ago. Thought I'd check in again to see how the rankings have changed.

      (Percentages are compound DAILY growth rates.)

      11: GA - 37,161 - 1.8%
      12: CT - 36,703 - 1.6% (was in top 10 last week)
      13: LA - 34,117 - 1.3%
      14: VA - 29,683 - 3.6%
      15: OH - 27,474 - 2.2%
      16: IN - 27,280 - 2.1%
      17: CO - 21,232 - 1.8%
      18: NC - 18,101 - 3.3%
      19: WA - 17,951 - 1.3%
      20: TN - 17,265 - 2.2%

      NC and VA are the two that climbed in rankings (and MD, which is in top 10 now), and you can see their growth is a full % point or more above the others.

      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #110

      @jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

      11: GA - 37,161 - 1.8%
      12: CT - 36,703 - 1.6% (was in top 10 last week)
      13: LA - 34,117 - 1.3%
      14: VA - 29,683 - 3.6%
      15: OH - 27,474 - 2.2%
      16: IN - 27,280 - 2.1%
      17: CO - 21,232 - 1.8%
      18: NC - 18,101 - 3.3%
      19: WA - 17,951 - 1.3%
      20: TN - 17,265 - 2.2%

      Thought it would be interesting to see how the top 10 have grown over that same 8 day period.

      NYS - 0.66%
      NJ - 0.83%
      IL - 2.9%
      MA - 1.5%
      CA - 2.5%
      PA - 1.6%
      MI - 1.1%
      TX - 3.0%
      FL - 1.7%
      MD - 2.8%

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #111

        So here are the top 20 states (by number of cases) but sorted by growth rate:

        0f58f3ce-652c-4987-8ae9-6c9093739518-image.png

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #112

          We’re #1!

          The Brad

          CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #113

            Yeah!

            Keep in mind that’s a compound daily growth rate over 8 days. So not just capturing a bad day or two.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • Aqua LetiferA Offline
              Aqua LetiferA Offline
              Aqua Letifer
              wrote on last edited by
              #114

              Interesting to note Maryland's, considering that our stay-at-home order was lifted yesterday.

              Please love yourself.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                We’re #1!

                CopperC Offline
                CopperC Offline
                Copper
                wrote on last edited by
                #115

                @LuFins-Dad said in NYC is ground zero:

                We’re #1!

                Not according to the Virginia's government numbers

                Maybe they are for a different timeframe or a different method of counting

                But this chart shows a 7-day moving average of cases going consistently down since 5/1

                https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

                ![alt text](f30a0fcd-1b3e-4960-b685-a8a81d75518f-image.png image url)

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #116

                  What conflict do you see between the 8 day CDGR as it relates to the other 19 states and the data you posted?

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    What conflict do you see between the 8 day CDGR as it relates to the other 19 states and the data you posted?

                    CopperC Offline
                    CopperC Offline
                    Copper
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #117

                    @jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

                    What conflict do you see between the 8 day CDGR as it relates to the other 19 states and the data you posted?

                    Positive vs negative growth rate

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #118

                      1st vs 2nd derivative. There’s no conflict.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • CopperC Offline
                        CopperC Offline
                        Copper
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #119

                        positive = negative?

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                          #120

                          No, the analogy is speed vs acceleration. My post pointed out that virginia is going faster than the other states. You pointed out that their speed is decreasing over time. 1st deriv (speed) positive, 2nd deriv (acceleration) negative.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • L Loki

                            IHME is back up. It says NY needs 5664 ventilators. Very different than Cuomo’s 30k

                            R Offline
                            R Offline
                            Riley
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #121
                            This post is deleted!
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #122

                              I'm going to update this weekly and do a bit more analysis. First of all it's a bit of a pain in the ass to do daily, secondly I think the weekly trends are more informative.

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG Offline
                                George KG Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #123

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • CopperC Offline
                                  CopperC Offline
                                  Copper
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #124

                                  Not very flat

                                  1 Reply Last reply
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