NYC is ground zero

[jon-nyc]

Just today I thought I'd list the next 10. Threw in some counties that might be of interest were they fit in between the states. Skipped various NJ counties, because, well, NJ.

11: GA - 32,162
Westchester
Los Angeles County
12: LA - 30,855
13: MD - 30,485
14: IN - 23,146
15: OH - 23,016
16: VA - 22,342
17: CO - 18,371
Wayne Co Michigan (Detroit)
Philadelphia County (Philly)
Middlesex County MA (not Boston but adjacent)
18: WA - 16,231
Suffolk County MA (Boston)
19: TN - 14,452
20: NC - 13.953

Observations:

• GA is fewer than 300 cases behind CT, the current #10. I haven't tracked growth here but it wouldn't surprise me to see it move into the top 10 at some point.

• WA has done pretty well. They used to be worst hit.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 330,407
NYC - 181,783 up 0.87%
NJ - 135,840
MA - 75,333
IL - 73,760 - up 4.1%
CA - 63,699 - up 4.2%
PA - 57,371
Cook - 50,236
MI - 46,311
FL - 39,199
Nassau - 37,812
TX - 37,153 - up 3.6%
Suffolk - 36,323
CT - 32,412

NYS - 333,122
NYC - 183,289 up 0.83%
NJ - 137,397
MA - 76,743
IL - 76,085 - up 3.2%
CA - 64,914
PA - 58,560
Cook - 51,674 - up 2.9%
MI - 46,815
FL - 40,001
Nassau - 38,028
TX - 37,906
Suffolk - 36,461
CT - 32,984

CA, TX up lots yesterday but not so much today. I wonder if that's a weekend thing. Guess we'll see next week.

(if it's not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 333,122
NYC - 183,289 up 0.83%
NJ - 137,397
MA - 76,743
IL - 76,085 - up 3.2%
CA - 64,914
PA - 58,560
Cook - 51,674 - up 2.9%
MI - 46,815
FL - 40,001
Nassau - 38,028
TX - 37,906
Suffolk - 36,461
CT - 32,984

NYS - 337,055
NYC - 185,357 - up 0.57%
NJ - 140,206
IL - 79,007
MA - 78,462
CA - 68,222 - up 2.5%
PA - 60,459
Cook - 53,381
MI - 47,552
FL - 40,982
TX - 40,486 - up 3.3%
Nassau - 38,337
Suffolk - 36,911
GA - 33,933

IL passed MA, GA knocked CT out of the top 10.

While they aren't nestled within the top 10, LA County moved ahead of Westchester and Philly (co) edged ahead of Detroit (Wayne co)

(if it's not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 337,055
NYC - 185,357 - up 0.57%
NJ - 140,206
IL - 79,007
MA - 78,462
CA - 68,222 - up 2.5%
PA - 60,459
Cook - 53,381
MI - 47,552
FL - 40,982
TX - 40,486 - up 3.3%
Nassau - 38,337
Suffolk - 36,911
GA - 33,933

NYS - 338,485
NYC - 186,123 up 0.41%
NJ - 140,917
IL - 83,021 up 5.1%
MA - 79,332
CA - 69,716
PA - 61,310
Cook - 55,470 up 3.9%
MI - 48,021
FL - 41,923
TX - 40,909
Nassau - 38,434
Suffolk - 37,062
GA - 34,754

IL up there still.

(if it's not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 338,485
NYC - 186,123 up 0.41%
NJ - 140,917
IL - 83,021 up 5.1%
MA - 79,332
CA - 69,716
PA - 61,310
Cook - 55,470 up 3.9%
MI - 48,021
FL - 41,923
TX - 40,909
Nassau - 38,434
Suffolk - 37,062
GA - 34,754

NYS - 343,051
NYC - 188,545 up 0.64%
NJ - 142,704
IL - 87,937
Lombardia, IT
MA - 80,497
CA - 74,392 - up 3.3%
Hubei, CN
Madrid, ES
PA - 63,105
Catalonia, ES
MI - 49,582
Bayern, DE
TX - 43,984
FL - 43,210
Quebec, CA
MD - 35,903

I did something different today, instead of interspersing US counties, I did international states/provinces/regions.

(if % is not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 343,051
NYC - 188,545 up 0.64%
NJ - 142,704
IL - 87,937
Lombardia, IT
MA - 80,497
CA - 74,392 - up 3.3%
Hubei, CN
Madrid, ES
PA - 63,105
Catalonia, ES
MI - 49,582
Bayern, DE
TX - 43,984
FL - 43,210
Quebec, CA
MD - 35,903

NYS - 345,813
NYC - 190,357 up 0.96%
NJ - 143,984
IL - 90,387
MA - 83,412 - up 3.6%
CA - 76,421
PA - 64,136
Cook - 59,905
MI - 50,102
TX - 45,208
FL - 43,210 - unchanged from yesterday, WTF
Nassau
Suffolk
MD - 36,986 - up 3%

(if % is not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 345,813
NYC - 190,357 up 0.96%
NJ - 143,984
IL - 90,387
MA - 83,412 - up 3.6%
CA - 76,421
PA - 64,136
Cook - 59,905
MI - 50,102
TX - 45,208
FL - 43,210 - unchanged from yesterday, WTF
Nassau
Suffolk
MD - 36,986 - up 3%

NYS - 348,232
NYC - 191,600 up 0.65%
NJ - 145,089
IL - 92,465 up 2.3%
MA - 84,933
CA - 77,516
PA - 65,185
Cook - 61,212
MI - 50,538
TX - 47,107 - up 4.2%
FL - 44,811
Nassau
MD - 37,964
Suffolk

With the rate MD is rising, Suffolk probably fell out of the top 10 range for good.

(if % is not listed it's under 3%)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

11: GA - 32,162
12: LA - 30,855
13: MD - 30,485
14: IN - 23,146
15: OH - 23,016
16: VA - 22,342
17: CO - 18,371
18: WA - 16,231
19: TN - 14,452
20: NC - 13.953

The above are #s 11-20 from 8 days ago. Thought I'd check in again to see how the rankings have changed.

(Percentages are compound DAILY growth rates.)

11: GA - 37,161 - 1.8%
12: CT - 36,703 - 1.6% (was in top 10 last week)
13: LA - 34,117 - 1.3%
14: VA - 29,683 - 3.6%
15: OH - 27,474 - 2.2%
16: IN - 27,280 - 2.1%
17: CO - 21,232 - 1.8%
18: NC - 18,101 - 3.3%
19: WA - 17,951 - 1.3%
20: TN - 17,265 - 2.2%

NC and VA are the two that climbed in rankings (and MD, which is in top 10 now), and you can see their growth is a full % point or more above the others.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

11: GA - 37,161 - 1.8%
12: CT - 36,703 - 1.6% (was in top 10 last week)
13: LA - 34,117 - 1.3%
14: VA - 29,683 - 3.6%
15: OH - 27,474 - 2.2%
16: IN - 27,280 - 2.1%
17: CO - 21,232 - 1.8%
18: NC - 18,101 - 3.3%
19: WA - 17,951 - 1.3%
20: TN - 17,265 - 2.2%

Thought it would be interesting to see how the top 10 have grown over that same 8 day period.

NYS - 0.66%
NJ - 0.83%
IL - 2.9%
MA - 1.5%
CA - 2.5%
PA - 1.6%
MI - 1.1%
TX - 3.0%
FL - 1.7%
MD - 2.8%

[jon-nyc]

So here are the top 20 states (by number of cases) but sorted by growth rate:

[LuFins Dad]

We’re #1!

[jon-nyc]

Yeah!

Keep in mind that’s a compound daily growth rate over 8 days. So not just capturing a bad day or two.

[Aqua Letifer]

Interesting to note Maryland's, considering that our stay-at-home order was lifted yesterday.

[Copper]

@LuFins-Dad said in NYC is ground zero:

We’re #1!

Not according to the Virginia's government numbers

Maybe they are for a different timeframe or a different method of counting

But this chart shows a 7-day moving average of cases going consistently down since 5/1

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/


[jon-nyc]

What conflict do you see between the 8 day CDGR as it relates to the other 19 states and the data you posted?

[Copper]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

What conflict do you see between the 8 day CDGR as it relates to the other 19 states and the data you posted?

Positive vs negative growth rate

[jon-nyc]

1st vs 2nd derivative. There’s no conflict.

[Copper]

positive = negative?

[jon-nyc]

No, the analogy is speed vs acceleration. My post pointed out that virginia is going faster than the other states. You pointed out that their speed is decreasing over time. 1st deriv (speed) positive, 2nd deriv (acceleration) negative.

[Riley]

This post is deleted!