Puzzle time: the baseball fan
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 11:55 last edited by Klaus 2 Mar 2021, 11:56
Doesn't really clarify it. Do you mean: Does the news improve the odds that your team will win at least 4 out of the 7 games?
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 12:18 last edited by
Yes.
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 13:04 last edited by Klaus 2 Mar 2021, 13:04
The odds that the news improves the odds is less than 60%, Bayesianistically speaking.
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 13:48 last edited by
I think the odds that you’re odd are even higher.
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 13:50 last edited by
That's odd.
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 14:59 last edited by
Isn't this just yet another comparison of two "probability of >=k heads in n throws of a biased coin p"?
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 15:39 last edited by jon-nyc 2 Mar 2021, 15:39
You know what's funny?
My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.
I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.
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wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 16:20 last edited by
You guys should become a comedy troupe!!!
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You know what's funny?
My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.
I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.
wrote on 3 Feb 2021, 16:23 last edited by Klaus 2 Mar 2021, 16:24@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.
The difference is that you know you have nobody to ask for clarification, whereas for us its a small investment to ask a clarifying question compared to investing valuable brain time for questionology. You are not better; you are just in a situation with less options
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 16:26 last edited by
He shouldn't be happy. Probability of winning goes down from 0.29 to 0.179.
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 17:38 last edited by
You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,
Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:14 last edited by
It mostly depends on whether Tom Brady is the pitcher.
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You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,
Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.
wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:23 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,
Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.
Oh, you are right.
Looks like the probabilities are identical, then: both are 0.1792.
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:31 last edited by jon-nyc 2 Apr 2021, 18:32
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.
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Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.
wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:32 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.
Your.
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@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.
Your.
wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:39 last edited by@horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.
You're.
I don't think so.
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@horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.
You're.
I don't think so.
wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:41 last edited by@klaus said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
@horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
Yeah which is why I posted it.
It’s counter intuitive.
Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.
Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.
You're.
I like pink pokemon.
We know.
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:42 last edited by
You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.
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You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.
wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 18:43 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:
You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.
You should talk to my wife.
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wrote on 4 Feb 2021, 21:34 last edited by
Best puzzle thread yet.
