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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Puzzle time: the baseball fan

Puzzle time: the baseball fan

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  • KlausK Offline
    KlausK Offline
    Klaus
    wrote on last edited by Klaus
    #10

    Doesn't really clarify it. Do you mean: Does the news improve the odds that your team will win at least 4 out of the 7 games?

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #11

      Yes.

      You were warned.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • KlausK Offline
        KlausK Offline
        Klaus
        wrote on last edited by Klaus
        #12

        The odds that the news improves the odds is less than 60%, Bayesianistically speaking.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #13

          I think the odds that you’re odd are even higher.

          You were warned.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • KlausK Offline
            KlausK Offline
            Klaus
            wrote on last edited by
            #14

            That's odd.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • KlausK Offline
              KlausK Offline
              Klaus
              wrote on last edited by
              #15

              Isn't this just yet another comparison of two "probability of >=k heads in n throws of a biased coin p"?

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                #16

                You know what's funny?

                My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

                I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                You were warned.

                KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                • taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girl
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #17

                  You guys should become a comedy troupe!!! 😂 😂

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    You know what's funny?

                    My kid's old math circle mailed this question out Sunday. I have nobody to ask any clarifying questions of, they send out hints Tuesday and Thursday and an answer Saturday. But somehow I managed.

                    I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                    KlausK Offline
                    KlausK Offline
                    Klaus
                    wrote on last edited by Klaus
                    #18

                    @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                    I think there's a skill called 'questionology' that I'm apparently better at than you and Ax.

                    The difference is that you know you have nobody to ask for clarification, whereas for us its a small investment to ask a clarifying question compared to investing valuable brain time for questionology. You are not better; you are just in a situation with less options 😉

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • KlausK Offline
                      KlausK Offline
                      Klaus
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #19

                      He shouldn't be happy. Probability of winning goes down from 0.29 to 0.179.

                      18c9cc91-79f0-4618-a88a-5bdd8c101455-image.png

                      44d17b5d-d6f4-4a86-a005-bb23d8990470-image.png

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #20

                        You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                        Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                        You were warned.

                        KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                        • HoraceH Offline
                          HoraceH Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #21

                          It mostly depends on whether Tom Brady is the pitcher.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                            Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                            KlausK Offline
                            KlausK Offline
                            Klaus
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #22

                            @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                            You’re comparing the time before the first game to the time after,

                            Should be the time before the camping trip to the time after.

                            Oh, you are right.

                            Looks like the probabilities are identical, then: both are 0.1792.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                              #23

                              Yeah which is why I posted it.

                              It’s counter intuitive.

                              Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                              Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                              You were warned.

                              HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                It’s counter intuitive.

                                Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                HoraceH Offline
                                HoraceH Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #24

                                @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                It’s counter intuitive.

                                Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                                Your.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                                • HoraceH Horace

                                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                  It’s counter intuitive.

                                  Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                  Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But you’re odds are unchanged.

                                  Your.

                                  KlausK Offline
                                  KlausK Offline
                                  Klaus
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #25

                                  @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                  Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                  It’s counter intuitive.

                                  Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                  Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                  You're.

                                  I don't think so.

                                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • KlausK Klaus

                                    @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                    @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                    Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                    It’s counter intuitive.

                                    Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                    Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                    You're.

                                    I don't think so.

                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #26

                                    @klaus said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                    @horace said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                    @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                    Yeah which is why I posted it.

                                    It’s counter intuitive.

                                    Your team is down by a game, with up to 6 left to play. You come back and your team is still down by a game but only 4 left.

                                    Seems like you’re in a worse position, less opportunity to catch up. But your odds are unchanged.

                                    You're.

                                    I like pink pokemon.

                                    We know.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #27

                                      You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                      You were warned.

                                      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                        HoraceH Offline
                                        HoraceH Offline
                                        Horace
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #28

                                        @jon-nyc said in Puzzle time: the baseball fan:

                                        You guys are fast. I noticed the error the second I hit post and changed it within 15 seconds.

                                        You should talk to my wife.

                                        Education is extremely important.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Offline
                                          MikM Offline
                                          Mik
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #29

                                          Best puzzle thread yet.

                                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

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