Calling the States

[jon-nyc]

@Klaus

1 The votes aren't even in yet, at least not everywhere.

2 Here all this shit is handled at the local level, and many jurisdictions simply didn't prepare for much larger mail-in and early voting, for reasons both banal and benign.

3 In many places, the GOP has fought to make it hard. Their pros know they're a minority party.

[Klaus]

So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?

[jon-nyc]

THat's a good summary.

It'll be a nail-biter.

[jon-nyc]

[Loki]

@Klaus said in Calling the States:

So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?

Yup. Arizona is Biden. It’s down to PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. Betting odds are 60/40 Trump

[Mik]

It looks like neither the House or Senate will change majorities.

[Mik]

I do not like this stopping the count in Fulton County until morning.

[jon-nyc]

Holy fuck. Georgia needle is now leaning Biden.

[jon-nyc]

Seems like Nate thinks this is an aberration.

[Klaus]

What’s the matter with those odd 80% Trump in Nevada? I thought this was a battle state?

[jon-nyc]

Where are you seeing that?

If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

[jon-nyc]

Minesoooota.

[Larry]

This isn't the first time Philadelphia has tried to steal an election.

[jon-nyc]

Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.

A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.

More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.

[Loki]

I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?

[jon-nyc]

What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:

(the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)

[Klaus]

Now it's 70%.

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

Where are you seeing that?

If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.

[jon-nyc]

Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.

The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.

Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.

[jon-nyc]

Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.

Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.

Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.