Calling the States

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in Calling the States:

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

I'm calling it for Trump.

I think you're too early.

You're right. They've always said election night would look good for Trump then mail in ballots would push things the other way.

We won't really know what happened for a day or two at least. It could come down to those little orphan districts in NE and ME.

[jon-nyc]

Scenario:

Trump gets PA, OH. Biden gets WI MI. Then Biden only needs one of the tossup NE/ME house districts to get to 270.

[jon-nyc]

Remember, PA, MI, WI have only reported in-person ballots so far.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:

Remember, PA, MI, WI have only reported in-person ballots so far.

Yeah, I’m thinking Arizona sunk Trump. Michigan will bear some watching, but...

[jon-nyc]

Although in fairness only Fox has called it.

But FWIW Nate was in awe at some Maricopa county in-person results that boded poorly for the president.

[Klaus]

Waking up in the middle of the night to check who won and all I see is confusion and uncertainty.

What’s so hard about counting votes?

[Jolly]

Texas to Trump.

[jon-nyc]

@Klaus

1 The votes aren't even in yet, at least not everywhere.

2 Here all this shit is handled at the local level, and many jurisdictions simply didn't prepare for much larger mail-in and early voting, for reasons both banal and benign.

3 In many places, the GOP has fought to make it hard. Their pros know they're a minority party.

[Klaus]

So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?

[jon-nyc]

THat's a good summary.

It'll be a nail-biter.

[jon-nyc]

[Loki]

@Klaus said in Calling the States:

So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?

Yup. Arizona is Biden. It’s down to PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. Betting odds are 60/40 Trump

[Mik]

It looks like neither the House or Senate will change majorities.

[Mik]

I do not like this stopping the count in Fulton County until morning.

[jon-nyc]

Holy fuck. Georgia needle is now leaning Biden.

[jon-nyc]

Seems like Nate thinks this is an aberration.

[Klaus]

What’s the matter with those odd 80% Trump in Nevada? I thought this was a battle state?

[jon-nyc]

Where are you seeing that?

If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight

Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.