Calling the States
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:59 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:00
1 The votes aren't even in yet, at least not everywhere.
2 Here all this shit is handled at the local level, and many jurisdictions simply didn't prepare for much larger mail-in and early voting, for reasons both banal and benign.
3 In many places, the GOP has fought to make it hard. Their pros know they're a minority party.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:02 last edited by
So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:03 last edited by
THat's a good summary.
It'll be a nail-biter.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:08 last edited by
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So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:10 last edited by Loki 11 Apr 2020, 05:10@Klaus said in Calling the States:
So I understand right now it looks better for Trump than predicted by the polls but overall it’s still very open. Is that about it?
Yup. Arizona is Biden. It’s down to PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. Betting odds are 60/40 Trump
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:11 last edited by
It looks like neither the House or Senate will change majorities.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:17 last edited by
I do not like this stopping the count in Fulton County until morning.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:17 last edited by
Holy fuck. Georgia needle is now leaning Biden.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:18 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:19
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:23 last edited by
What’s the matter with those odd 80% Trump in Nevada? I thought this was a battle state?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:25 last edited by
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:30 last edited by
Minesoooota.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
This isn't the first time Philadelphia has tried to steal an election.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
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Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:34 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by
I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:36
What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:
(the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)
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Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:43 last edited byNow it's 70%.
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:48
Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.
The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.
Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:51 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:53
Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.
Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.
Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.
