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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Understanding US election polls

Understanding US election polls

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  • K Offline
    K Offline
    Klaus
    wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:41 last edited by Klaus
    #12

    Maybe it is simply because it is much easier/cheaper to do polls for popular vote. Much more data (i.e., money) would be needed for semi-accurate electoral college predictions, I guess.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 18:52 last edited by
      #13

      No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.

      The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.

      He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.

      J 1 Reply Last reply 28 Oct 2020, 20:09
      • L Loki
        28 Oct 2020, 18:52

        No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.

        The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.

        He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.

        J Offline
        J Offline
        Jolly
        wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:09 last edited by
        #14

        @Loki said in Understanding US election polls:

        No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.

        The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.

        He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.

        Trump is trending, though.

        A lot depends on those early votes and who shows up at the polls.

        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

        1 Reply Last reply
        • G George K
          28 Oct 2020, 17:40

          @Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:

          Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?

          To help create a narrative?

          I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.

          C Offline
          C Offline
          Copper
          wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:29 last edited by
          #15

          @George-K said in Understanding US election polls:

          @Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:

          Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?

          To help create a narrative?

          I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.

          Yes, but I think that is true.

          It sells the story that Mr. Biden is supposed to win, because of the popular vote.

          Should he lose the electoral and win the popular the outrage has already been fueled.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • K Klaus
            28 Oct 2020, 17:35

            Another poll question:

            Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?

            Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).

            J Online
            J Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:42 last edited by jon-nyc
            #16

            @Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:

            Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).

            Nate's take, as good as any you'll see.

            As for the other question, both national polls and state level polls are done. Obviously national polls are cheaper to do and they're correlated with the overall outcome.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • L Offline
              L Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:56 last edited by
              #17

              Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time. I know a very few that voted Clinton in 16 that won’t be voting Biden, and I know a fair number like myself that voted 3rd party or just abstained in 16 because they couldn’t stand either that are strongly considering or already have pulled the lever for Trump. Hell, Aqua’s considering it...

              There have been record numbers of new voter registrations and while the Dems have gotten more numbers, it appears that Trump’s teams have won some of the important battleground states. I am not going to make any predictions at all except that I will be a little drunk on election night...

              The Brad

              J 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 16:54
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                Larry
                wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 21:00 last edited by
                #18

                The MSM is helping the democrat party push the "popular vote" narrative because they know they can't win nationally. They are fully aware that they are a regional party. They also know that of the rank and file Democrats who haven't left the party altogether, the vast majority of them have no principles and will swallow and perpetuate anything the party tells them to.

                And the party, along with their propaganda arm the MSM, know that the high population in California and the New York region will give them the "popular vote". Neither the democrats nor the media give a rat's ass about the Constitution, your rights, or anything else that stands in their way. They can't convince you, so they want to for e you. After all, in their minds they are superior to you in every way and the only reason you disagree with them is because you're too dumb to know what's best for you.

                The smartest thing Americans could do is to stop voting for ANY democrat at any level until there are no more democrats in political office. But that won't happen, because 1. Our education system has been corrupted and is turning out ignorant graduates and 2 the number of stupid people has been growing.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • L Offline
                  L Offline
                  Loki
                  wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 22:09 last edited by
                  #19

                  No question Rasmussen was one of the very few that called Trump close to accurate in 2016. So the C+ rating requires some explanation.

                  In the last few weeks Rasmussen has shown a real deliberate uptrend with Trump on top now.

                  Weigh that against corrections by other polling outfits, the question of Rasmussen picking up a good sample this time and the fact that others who called Trump last time say Biden this time.

                  I already gave my prediction but Rasmussen gives the hopefuls something reasonable to hold on to.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • T Offline
                    T Offline
                    taiwan_girl
                    wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 00:19 last edited by
                    #20

                    I predict that either President Trump will be reelected or Vice President Biden will win the president. 555

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • 8 Offline
                      8 Offline
                      89th
                      wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 03:01 last edited by
                      #21

                      There is zero chance Trump wins.

                      J L 2 Replies Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 04:07
                      • 8 Offline
                        8 Offline
                        89th
                        wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 03:27 last edited by
                        #22

                        17F030F7-D690-42E6-8F1F-13636EB196E2.jpeg

                        L C 2 Replies Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 05:13
                        • 8 89th
                          29 Oct 2020, 03:01

                          There is zero chance Trump wins.

                          J Online
                          J Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 04:07 last edited by
                          #23

                          @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                          There is zero chance Trump wins.

                          Looks more like 12%.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          8 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 12:12
                          • 8 89th
                            29 Oct 2020, 03:27

                            17F030F7-D690-42E6-8F1F-13636EB196E2.jpeg

                            L Offline
                            L Offline
                            Larry
                            wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 05:13 last edited by Larry
                            #24

                            ..

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • 8 89th
                              29 Oct 2020, 03:01

                              There is zero chance Trump wins.

                              L Offline
                              L Offline
                              Larry
                              wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 05:14 last edited by
                              #25

                              @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                              There is zero chance Trump wins.

                              BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J jon-nyc
                                29 Oct 2020, 04:07

                                @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                                There is zero chance Trump wins.

                                Looks more like 12%.

                                8 Offline
                                8 Offline
                                89th
                                wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 12:12 last edited by
                                #26

                                @jon-nyc said in Understanding US election polls:

                                @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                                There is zero chance Trump wins.

                                Looks more like 12%.

                                Lol I knew you’d say that.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • 8 Offline
                                  8 Offline
                                  89th
                                  wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 12:28 last edited by
                                  #27

                                  The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.

                                  C 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 14:31
                                  • D Offline
                                    D Offline
                                    Doctor Phibes
                                    wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 12:30 last edited by
                                    #28

                                    @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                                    The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.

                                    God I hope so, but I lack your confidence.

                                    I was only joking

                                    ? 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 21:20
                                    • 8 89th
                                      29 Oct 2020, 12:28

                                      The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.

                                      C Offline
                                      C Offline
                                      Catseye3
                                      wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:31 last edited by
                                      #29

                                      @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                                      The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.

                                      Frank Bruni: "There seems to me a greater possibility now of a commanding victory by Joe Biden, and the bigger the margin, the harder it would be for President Trump to play the cheated martyr, no matter how extensively he’s been rehearsing that role."

                                      He goes on:

                                      "I emphasize 'possibility.' There remains the very real chance that Biden will lose . . . . Here’s how my friend Doug Sosnik, who was the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House and continues to analyze voting trends and dynamics, assessed Trump’s prospects in an email to me and other journalists on Sunday:

                                      'He continues to perform better in the battleground states that will determine the election than he does at the national level. Given the history of the 2016 campaign, Trump’s ability to turn his campaign around in the final days can’t be underestimated. Trump has a much more aggressive campaign schedule than Biden. He is drawing large crowds and is dominating local coverage in the battleground states where he is campaigning.'

                                      Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 8 89th
                                        29 Oct 2020, 03:27

                                        17F030F7-D690-42E6-8F1F-13636EB196E2.jpeg

                                        C Offline
                                        C Offline
                                        Copper
                                        wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:33 last edited by
                                        #30

                                        @89th said in Understanding US election polls:

                                        17F030F7-D690-42E6-8F1F-13636EB196E2.jpeg

                                        So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem

                                        Shocking

                                        J 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 15:05
                                        • D Offline
                                          D Offline
                                          Doctor Phibes
                                          wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:42 last edited by
                                          #31

                                          What I don't understand is the seemingly unquenchable optimism of the supporters of both sides.

                                          I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?

                                          I was only joking

                                          A 1 Reply Last reply 29 Oct 2020, 14:50
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