Understanding US election polls
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@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
Very astute.
The popular vote polls for the entire country are meaningless. State polls are more meaningful, and then a lot depends on the sample size and the questions.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.
The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.
He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.
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@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.
The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.
He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.
Trump is trending, though.
A lot depends on those early votes and who shows up at the polls.
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@George-K said in Understanding US election polls:
@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?
To help create a narrative?
I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.
Yes, but I think that is true.
It sells the story that Mr. Biden is supposed to win, because of the popular vote.
Should he lose the electoral and win the popular the outrage has already been fueled.
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@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
Nate's take, as good as any you'll see.
As for the other question, both national polls and state level polls are done. Obviously national polls are cheaper to do and they're correlated with the overall outcome.
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Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time. I know a very few that voted Clinton in 16 that won’t be voting Biden, and I know a fair number like myself that voted 3rd party or just abstained in 16 because they couldn’t stand either that are strongly considering or already have pulled the lever for Trump. Hell, Aqua’s considering it...
There have been record numbers of new voter registrations and while the Dems have gotten more numbers, it appears that Trump’s teams have won some of the important battleground states. I am not going to make any predictions at all except that I will be a little drunk on election night...
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The MSM is helping the democrat party push the "popular vote" narrative because they know they can't win nationally. They are fully aware that they are a regional party. They also know that of the rank and file Democrats who haven't left the party altogether, the vast majority of them have no principles and will swallow and perpetuate anything the party tells them to.
And the party, along with their propaganda arm the MSM, know that the high population in California and the New York region will give them the "popular vote". Neither the democrats nor the media give a rat's ass about the Constitution, your rights, or anything else that stands in their way. They can't convince you, so they want to for e you. After all, in their minds they are superior to you in every way and the only reason you disagree with them is because you're too dumb to know what's best for you.
The smartest thing Americans could do is to stop voting for ANY democrat at any level until there are no more democrats in political office. But that won't happen, because 1. Our education system has been corrupted and is turning out ignorant graduates and 2 the number of stupid people has been growing.
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No question Rasmussen was one of the very few that called Trump close to accurate in 2016. So the C+ rating requires some explanation.
In the last few weeks Rasmussen has shown a real deliberate uptrend with Trump on top now.
Weigh that against corrections by other polling outfits, the question of Rasmussen picking up a good sample this time and the fact that others who called Trump last time say Biden this time.
I already gave my prediction but Rasmussen gives the hopefuls something reasonable to hold on to.
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I predict that either President Trump will be reelected or Vice President Biden will win the president. 555
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@jon-nyc said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
There is zero chance Trump wins.
Looks more like 12%.
Lol I knew you’d say that.
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@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
God I hope so, but I lack your confidence.
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@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
Frank Bruni: "There seems to me a greater possibility now of a commanding victory by Joe Biden, and the bigger the margin, the harder it would be for President Trump to play the cheated martyr, no matter how extensively he’s been rehearsing that role."
He goes on:
"I emphasize 'possibility.' There remains the very real chance that Biden will lose . . . . Here’s how my friend Doug Sosnik, who was the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House and continues to analyze voting trends and dynamics, assessed Trump’s prospects in an email to me and other journalists on Sunday:
'He continues to perform better in the battleground states that will determine the election than he does at the national level. Given the history of the 2016 campaign, Trump’s ability to turn his campaign around in the final days can’t be underestimated. Trump has a much more aggressive campaign schedule than Biden. He is drawing large crowds and is dominating local coverage in the battleground states where he is campaigning.'
