Trafalgar

[Jolly]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

[George K]

[Jolly]

And how close did Nate come to the 2016 election?

[Doctor Phibes]

How one votes should have no connection to how the candidates are doing in the polls, but apparently it must.

[xenon]

@Jolly said in Trafalgar:

And how close did Nate come to the 2016 election?

I think Nate had given Trump something like a ~30% chance.

[bachophile]

Shimon Peres once said israel is the one place in the world where people vote the truth in the polls but lie in the voting booth. Most places it’s the opposite. Lie as much as you want in a poll but vote your truth in the booth.

If it’s true in America, then it’s troubling (to me at least).

[LuFins Dad]

The one thing that I have been hearing for a while is to watch the job approval numbers. If they get to to the 46-48% range he stands a decent chance....

[jon-nyc]

This is the last polling info from their site, compared to actuals.

Note when I say 'Trending [Name]" that's just directional, not a prognostication on where it'll end up.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

This is the last polling info from their site, compared to actuals.

Note when I say 'Trending [Name]" that's just directional, not a prognostication on where it'll end up.

In other words, you think they nailed it? Again?

[jon-nyc]

I think they'll be 2 for 5 on their Trump calls. Possibly 3 for 5.

So, as I suggested before, maybe they don't really have a secret sauce so much as a consistent GOP lean.

[Loki]

We should compare Nate’s grades on all the pollsters and how well they actually did.

[jon-nyc]

He keeps detailed statistics on hundreds of pollsters.

Trafalgar is correct 75% of the time. He gives them a C-

I'm sure he'll have plenty of analysis on how polling firms did over the next few months.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

He keeps detailed statistics on hundreds of posters.

Trafalgar is correct 75% of the time. He gives them a C-

I'm sure he'll have plenty of analysis on how polling firms did over the next few months.

I saw him on GMA this morning. He talked about how hard it is to poll anymore, no good answers. A little frustrating that he continues to say when you the roll the dice theses things happen from time to time as he is always defending the bad rolls.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

He keeps detailed statistics on hundreds of pollsters.

Trafalgar is correct 75% of the time. He gives them a C-

I'm sure he'll have plenty of analysis on how polling firms did over the next few months.

When you're right more than your competitors, I'd say you rate a bit better.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

I think they'll be 2 for 5 on their Trump calls. Possibly 3 for 5.

So, as I suggested before, maybe they don't really have a secret sauce so much as a consistent GOP lean.

Well, without fraud, I think they'd be 4/5.

[jon-nyc]

Undermining confidence in elections could end up being Trump’s worst legacy.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

Undermining confidence in elections could end up being Trump’s worst legacy.

I think it may be his best legacy.

The best thing that Al Gore ever did for the U.S., was help fix the election mess in Florida.

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Trafalgar:

Undermining confidence in elections could end up being Trump’s worst legacy.

That’s total BS. And where is the civil war that was predicted?

The transition too is going to be very smooth versus the hysteria we had to suffer through.