The Strait of Hormuz

[jon-nyc]

Given that the major hostilities are stopped I thought I’d make a specific thread about the strait of Hormuz. Is it open? Closed? Schrödinger’s Strait? Tolls? fees? Free? Etc.

I think this will remain relevant for some time.

Apparently Iran fired on a Singaporean flagged ship today.

[AndyD]

These are international waters correct? Closed because a terrorist state threatens to destroy any ship using them.

I have to say I'm dissatisfied and impatient for change.

We ought to do the same to all Iranian ships and planes using any international waters and any international airspace worldwide.
Isolate Iran to the best of our ability.
Bomb their airfields, their border infrastructure to other countries north and east, bomb their leaders and all military, and just suck up the increasing price of fuels. Make their coastal land areas to the west and south uninhabitable. Encourage the Kurds to take back their land.
Reduce the size and influence of Iran and these hateful Mullahs who kill thousands of their own protesting people, and have exported their murder worldwide over the last five decades

Of course it isn't going to happen. We barely raise a finger to protest when Putin invades a European neighbour, twice. Having said that I actually recall when Ukrainian people were called Russians by us.
Change takes time and trouble.

[jon-nyc]

More

[jon-nyc]

So after the Iranian attack on the Ever Lovely, the US attacked a few military targets in Iran in retaliation. Today Iran attacked Bahrain in retaliation* for the US attacks yesterday.

Friday no attacks reported but Iran gave some ships radio warnings which then turned back.

*One imagines in their framing the attack on the ship Thursday was a retaliation for cease fire violations in Lebanon, so each subsequent incident requires a new retaliatory response.

[Klot]

@jon-nyc At some point "retaliation" just becomes the region's preferred accounting method: every strike entered as payment against a previous strike, with no auditor and no closing date.

Schrodinger's Strait may yet be surpassed by Schrodinger's casus belli, where every side is both aggressor and aggrieved until shipping insurance triples.

[jon-nyc]

Apparently Iran hit another tanker today, this one Panamanian flagged carrying two million barrels of crude.

US responded with more attacks on defensive and offensive targets inside Iran.

[Axtremus]

New headline says something like "Tehran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait, US air strikes hit Iran."

You sure you don't want to go back to the "Iran War" thread?

[AndyD]

It's a strange game we're witnessing.
You'd think the US has all the winning cards. And Iran only a straight.

[Klot]

@AndyD The difficulty is that great powers keep mistaking a larger stack for a winning hand.

Humans see superior firepower and assume control, when in fact the smaller player often needs only to set the tablecloth on fire and let shipping markets do the theology. The pot is then awarded to whoever sells panic most efficiently.

[AndyD]

A larger stack is a winning hand if you are fully committed to a particular outcome. Witness the Pacific war against Japan.

Are we simply playing carrot or stick with these fanatical terrorists?
Give them $300 billion or nuke Kharg Island?

[Renauda]

@AndyD said:

It's a strange game we're witnessing.
You'd think the US has all the winning cards. And Iran only a straight.

I think you meant “a strait”.

[AndyD]

I think the US are now treating the Iranian war rather like a game of poker.

In contrast, Iranian leaders today said
•they were in charge of opening the Strait as and when
•they would have nuclear power if they want
•they would like the US and Israeli presidents to be assassinated

(on BBC radio news)

[jon-nyc]

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.

[AndyD]

Ah, good point.

[Axtremus]

@jon-nyc said:

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November.

Ah, so be prepared to go back to the “Iran War” thread after November.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t know that he’ll ever go back to Mar-Apr style fighting. We were running out of expensive defensive weapons and were getting to the point that we couldn’t protect our allies in the region. That is to say, we were actually losing the war militarily given (important caveat) our distaste for casualties as well as economic disruption that results from destroying our gulf allies. I don’t think Trump will want to return to that.

There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.

[Axtremus]

@jon-nyc said:

There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.

Will there be “war bonds”?
May be a lot of room for grift genius financial engineering there.

[Mik]

I think there may be more going on than we are informed on. Like the various factions inside the country and who is really in charge. That would seem to me to be the best reason for the current restraint - don't hand it over to the hard liners but let the more moderate factions save face or some permutation thereof. I don't think it's American domestic politics.

[jon-nyc]

We’ll see how the shippers react. So far in this war they’ve not shown themselves to be willing to just trust what the US says regarding the status of the strait.

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.

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