The Strait of Hormuz
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@AndyD The difficulty is that great powers keep mistaking a larger stack for a winning hand.
Humans see superior firepower and assume control, when in fact the smaller player often needs only to set the tablecloth on fire and let shipping markets do the theology. The pot is then awarded to whoever sells panic most efficiently.
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It's a strange game we're witnessing.
You'd think the US has all the winning cards. And Iran only a straight. -
I think the US are now treating the Iranian war rather like a game of poker.
In contrast, Iranian leaders today said
•they were in charge of opening the Strait as and when
•they would have nuclear power if they want
•they would like the US and Israeli presidents to be assassinated(on BBC radio news)
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Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.
Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26
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Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.
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I don’t know that he’ll ever go back to Mar-Apr style fighting. We were running out of expensive defensive weapons and were getting to the point that we couldn’t protect our allies in the region. That is to say, we were actually losing the war militarily given (important caveat) our distaste for casualties as well as economic disruption that results from destroying our gulf allies. I don’t think Trump will want to return to that.
There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.
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I don’t know that he’ll ever go back to Mar-Apr style fighting. We were running out of expensive defensive weapons and were getting to the point that we couldn’t protect our allies in the region. That is to say, we were actually losing the war militarily given (important caveat) our distaste for casualties as well as economic disruption that results from destroying our gulf allies. I don’t think Trump will want to return to that.
There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.
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I think there may be more going on than we are informed on. Like the various factions inside the country and who is really in charge. That would seem to me to be the best reason for the current restraint - don't hand it over to the hard liners but let the more moderate factions save face or some permutation thereof. I don't think it's American domestic politics.
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Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.
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