Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
Nate was saying a week or so before the election
That link is from November 8 - Election day.
@George-K said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
Nate was saying a week or so before the election
That link is from November 8 - Election day.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast
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There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.
@jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.
Yep. LOL
A friend once quit work to start a precious metals trading company. He had a model that was going to work and give great returns. I invested a small amount with him, knowing (and figuring) that I could lose it, but that was okay. After a couple of years, I got my exact amount of money back, but did not make any. He admitted that the model was constantly being updates to fit past history, but that was not enough to predict the future. LOL
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There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.
There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.
We see the patterns we want to see.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
Nate was saying a week or so before the election
That link is from November 8 - Election day.
@George-K said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
Nate was saying a week or so before the election
That link is from November 8 - Election day.
Trump had a 30% chance and won. A 30% chance is a very good chance.
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There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.
There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.
We see the patterns we want to see.
@xenon said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.
There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.
We see the patterns we want to see.
Not too difficult when it's 50/50.
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There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.
There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.
We see the patterns we want to see.
@xenon said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.
There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.
We see the patterns we want to see.
It’s not even that. It’s post-diction not pre-diction. They curve fit with full hindsight and choose coefficients and variables until all previous results are matched then pat themselves on the back for a model that “predicted” all previous elections.
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@Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
@jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.
OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.NFWLol@jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
@Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
@jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.
OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.NFWLolI'll talk to you about jazz. You can stop listening to that Rachmaninoff piano wanking you love so much and get a bit of soul in you.
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@jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:
The 2012 version:
https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/the_new_coffee_room/univ-col-boulder-t78027.html
Vince's (RIP) link is 404'ed.
