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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll

Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll

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  • J Jolly
    19 Sept 2020, 00:26

    @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

    There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

    On that, I would agree.

    OTOH, something must be going on in some of the internal polls. I see some changes being made in both campaigns...

    G Offline
    G Offline
    George K
    wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:29 last edited by
    #16

    @Jolly said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

    I see some changes being made in both campaigns...

    Do tell...

    <insert popcorn gif here: ________________>

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:33 last edited by
      #17

      Well, whatever state the campaign was in at 6pm is no longer relevant.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • R Rainman
        19 Sept 2020, 00:03

        @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

        There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

        OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
        If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.

        If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
        And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

        D Offline
        D Offline
        Doctor Phibes
        wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:33 last edited by
        #18

        @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

        @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

        There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

        OK, Jon. Here's the deal.

        And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

        What did I do to have to talk to Jon for a freaking hour?

        I was only joking

        J 1 Reply Last reply 19 Sept 2020, 00:33
        • D Doctor Phibes
          19 Sept 2020, 00:33

          @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

          @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

          There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

          OK, Jon. Here's the deal.

          And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

          What did I do to have to talk to Jon for a freaking hour?

          J Offline
          J Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:33 last edited by
          #19

          @Doctor-Phibes said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

          @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

          @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

          There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

          OK, Jon. Here's the deal.

          And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

          What did I do to have to talk to Jon for a freaking hour?

          Punishment.😄

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          1 Reply Last reply
          • R Rainman
            19 Sept 2020, 00:03

            @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

            There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

            OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
            If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.

            If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
            And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

            J Offline
            J Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:40 last edited by
            #20

            @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

            @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

            There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

            OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
            If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.

            If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
            And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

            NFW Lol

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            D 1 Reply Last reply 19 Sept 2020, 04:39
            • G George K
              18 Sept 2020, 22:53

              @LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

              Nate was saying a week or so before the election

              That link is from November 8 - Election day.Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 5.53.32 PM.png

              L Offline
              L Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 00:41 last edited by
              #21

              @George-K said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

              @LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

              Nate was saying a week or so before the election

              That link is from November 8 - Election day.Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 5.53.32 PM.png

              https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

              The Brad

              1 Reply Last reply
              • J jon-nyc
                18 Sept 2020, 23:12

                There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

                T Offline
                T Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 01:09 last edited by
                #22

                @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

                Yep. LOL

                A friend once quit work to start a precious metals trading company. He had a model that was going to work and give great returns. I invested a small amount with him, knowing (and figuring) that I could lose it, but that was okay. After a couple of years, I got my exact amount of money back, but did not make any. He admitted that the model was constantly being updates to fit past history, but that was not enough to predict the future. LOL

                1 Reply Last reply
                • X Offline
                  X Offline
                  xenon
                  wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 03:08 last edited by xenon
                  #23

                  There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.

                  There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.

                  We see the patterns we want to see.

                  M J 2 Replies Last reply 19 Sept 2020, 03:14
                  • G George K
                    18 Sept 2020, 22:53

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                    Nate was saying a week or so before the election

                    That link is from November 8 - Election day.Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 5.53.32 PM.png

                    X Offline
                    X Offline
                    xenon
                    wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 03:10 last edited by
                    #24

                    @George-K said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                    Nate was saying a week or so before the election

                    That link is from November 8 - Election day.Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 5.53.32 PM.png

                    Trump had a 30% chance and won. A 30% chance is a very good chance.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • X xenon
                      19 Sept 2020, 03:08

                      There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.

                      There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.

                      We see the patterns we want to see.

                      M Offline
                      M Offline
                      Mik
                      wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 03:14 last edited by
                      #25

                      @xenon said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                      There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.

                      There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.

                      We see the patterns we want to see.

                      Not too difficult when it's 50/50. 😆

                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • X xenon
                        19 Sept 2020, 03:08

                        There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.

                        There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.

                        We see the patterns we want to see.

                        J Offline
                        J Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 03:17 last edited by
                        #26

                        @xenon said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                        There’s two candidates, the elections only happen once every 4 years.

                        There’s a shitload of prognosticators. If you have enough of them, a portion of them will have a perfect prediction record through sheer chance.

                        We see the patterns we want to see.

                        It’s not even that. It’s post-diction not pre-diction. They curve fit with full hindsight and choose coefficients and variables until all previous results are matched then pat themselves on the back for a model that “predicted” all previous elections.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Offline
                          J Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 03:21 last edited by
                          #27

                          The 2012 version:

                          https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/the_new_coffee_room/univ-col-boulder-t78027.html

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          G 1 Reply Last reply 19 Sept 2020, 11:40
                          • J jon-nyc
                            19 Sept 2020, 00:40

                            @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                            @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                            There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

                            OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
                            If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.

                            If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
                            And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

                            NFW Lol

                            D Offline
                            D Offline
                            Doctor Phibes
                            wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 04:39 last edited by
                            #28

                            @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                            @Rainman said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                            @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                            There’s a bunch of guys that every cycle. They invent an overfitted model and brag about its post-dictive abilities and assume it must be predictive.

                            OK, Jon. Here's the deal.
                            If Biden wins, you can pummel some of us daily for 1 year, and we will type "you were right, Jon!" every day in response.

                            If Trump wins, you buy that Vette and wear a MAGA hat for one week per month, with the Vette top down.
                            And, you have to drive to wherever Phibes lives, and listen to him on any subject for an hour.

                            NFW Lol

                            I'll talk to you about jazz. You can stop listening to that Rachmaninoff piano wanking you love so much and get a bit of soul in you.

                            I was only joking

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J jon-nyc
                              19 Sept 2020, 03:21

                              The 2012 version:

                              https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/the_new_coffee_room/univ-col-boulder-t78027.html

                              G Offline
                              G Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on 19 Sept 2020, 11:40 last edited by
                              #29

                              @jon-nyc said in Trump jumps in Rasmussen Poll:

                              The 2012 version:

                              https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/the_new_coffee_room/univ-col-boulder-t78027.html

                              Vince's (RIP) link is 404'ed.

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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