China cannot win the trade war with the US
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/trump-tariffs-china-factories.html
In a Storm of Tariffs, Many Companies See China as the Safest Harbor
The heavy U.S. tariffs on other Asian countries have made China a more appealing option for companies scared to make a hasty decision amid upheaval in global trade.
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After the monumental backdown of Trump(CF) I'm not even sure if your questions are relevant. He'll negotiate with China in some way.
But China can just sell their stuff cheaper to other countries (predicted for the UK soon) and source imports from places other than US.
China may struggle, but it has a huge domestic market, the communist regime will rubber stamp anything, and the people will bear-with. Long term:
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/china-trump-tariffs-threat-response-b2729350.html
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Ferguson on the topic, from the Honestly podcast:
“So I think here I disagree with some analysts. I think China has the upper hand in a game of mutually assured economic or financial destruction because we know from the events of 2020 that the Chinese can impose significant economic pain on their population and maintain complete social control. That is not the case for any elected president or congressman.”
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It's an old saw that nobody wins a trade war.
Obviously the increasingly stable genius believes otherwise. However, does anybody honestly believe that he's negotiating in good faith? The worst thing you can do in any negotiation is to lose people's trust - not the trust of your adversaries, but the trust of people who until very recently were allies.
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Tariffs on Chinese imports now at 145%.
China's tariffs on U.S. imports to reach 125%. -
@jon-nyc said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
Unfortunately, the wrong approach if the words above are correct.
Better would be "both US and China agreeto discuss path forward that is beneficial for both countries."
Telling China to be the one to request a call will backfire.
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@jon-nyc said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
It did. He got crickets and another 41% tariff in return.
Indeed. Again, their lack of skill at implementing most everything and the communication thereof is just killing them.
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@jon-nyc said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
It did. He got crickets and another 41% tariff in return.
Indeed. Again, their lack of skill at implementing most everything and the communication thereof is just killing them.
@Mik said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
@jon-nyc said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
It did. He got crickets and another 41% tariff in return.
Indeed. Again, their lack of skill at implementing most everything and the communication thereof is just killing them.
The problem is that there is no communication. It’s quite something other. It goes hand in hand with hubris.
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The relationship between America and China has been damaged, as seen by China's polite oral response and not raising tariffs after the latest ridiculous US rise.
They're not like the Japanese (bow properly and be prepared to learn from anyone).
It all about humility and friendships and face. Once offended it's difficult to go back. Xi must have spent millions wiping his nicknames off the Internet. Now he's visiting Spain, Malaysia, Cambodia Vietnam. Pretty obvious why.
Trump(CF) needs a couple of people who really understand the Chinese to advise.
Don't ask me though, I've only been married to one for 33 years. -
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Oh the humility and understanding.
He must think he is the most perfect person to deal with the Chinese, and like Trump(CF), the most humble & diplomatic deal maker in any room.He may well be right about the Chinese government and its methods of course.
@AndyD said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
He may well be right about the Chinese government and its methods of course.
He is.
From my understanding, most US companies sell technology that is (at least) one generation behind, because it is known that they will "reverse engineer" it and then sell it via a Chinese company as being self developed.
But, that doesn't mean that telling them that they HAVE to call President Trump is a good way to go about resolving this issue.
