China cannot win the trade war with the US
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They can't win any prolonged trade war. And I think Trump is ready to go to the mattresses with the Chinese on trade.
So, the question is two-fold:
- Does China cave before the U.S.?
- How long will it take to either on-shore or find other countries to manufacture or provide needed goods?
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It's not "China vs. the USA,"
it's "Xi vs. Trump."Trump is term-limited, Xi is not.
Even if term-limiting fails,
Trump is older (b. 1946), Xi is younger (b. 1953). -
It's not "China vs. the USA,"
it's "Xi vs. Trump."Trump is term-limited, Xi is not.
Even if term-limiting fails,
Trump is older (b. 1946), Xi is younger (b. 1953).@Axtremus said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
"Xi vs. Trump.
Winnie the Pooh vs. Tigger.
(He's orange, he's annoying, he's the only one!)
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It's not "China vs. the USA,"
it's "Xi vs. Trump."Trump is term-limited, Xi is not.
Even if term-limiting fails,
Trump is older (b. 1946), Xi is younger (b. 1953).@Axtremus said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
It's not "China vs. the USA,"
it's "Xi vs. Trump."Trump is term-limited, Xi is not.
Even if term-limiting fails,
Trump is older (b. 1946), Xi is younger (b. 1953).And even with their Kill The Opposition policy, I think China is more politically unstable. How bad does it have to get before Xi has a 9mm heart attack?
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I have little doubt that the Chinese economy will be able to absorb any tariffs, the communist government will take remedial actions.
Trump(CF) meanwhile will simply repeat to the free world "Bear with"
@AndyD said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
I have little doubt that the Chinese economy will be able to absorb any tariffs, the communist government will take remedial actions.
Trump(CF) meanwhile will simply repeat to the free world "Bear with"
Ok, how will they absorb them and what effect will that have?
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/trump-tariffs-china-factories.html
In a Storm of Tariffs, Many Companies See China as the Safest Harbor
The heavy U.S. tariffs on other Asian countries have made China a more appealing option for companies scared to make a hasty decision amid upheaval in global trade.
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After the monumental backdown of Trump(CF) I'm not even sure if your questions are relevant. He'll negotiate with China in some way.
But China can just sell their stuff cheaper to other countries (predicted for the UK soon) and source imports from places other than US.
China may struggle, but it has a huge domestic market, the communist regime will rubber stamp anything, and the people will bear-with. Long term:
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/china-trump-tariffs-threat-response-b2729350.html
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Ferguson on the topic, from the Honestly podcast:
“So I think here I disagree with some analysts. I think China has the upper hand in a game of mutually assured economic or financial destruction because we know from the events of 2020 that the Chinese can impose significant economic pain on their population and maintain complete social control. That is not the case for any elected president or congressman.”
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It's an old saw that nobody wins a trade war.
Obviously the increasingly stable genius believes otherwise. However, does anybody honestly believe that he's negotiating in good faith? The worst thing you can do in any negotiation is to lose people's trust - not the trust of your adversaries, but the trust of people who until very recently were allies.
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Tariffs on Chinese imports now at 145%.
China's tariffs on U.S. imports to reach 125%. -
@jon-nyc said in China cannot win the trade war with the US:
Unfortunately, the wrong approach if the words above are correct.
Better would be "both US and China agreeto discuss path forward that is beneficial for both countries."
Telling China to be the one to request a call will backfire.
