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The New Coffee Room

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Taiwan

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  • JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #2

    Speed bump.

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • 89th8 Offline
      89th8 Offline
      89th
      wrote on last edited by
      #3

      I mean, if you were China, why wouldn't you just sweep over Taiwan and take it over now? The odds that Trump would fight back seem very slim to me.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Offline
        JollyJ Offline
        Jolly
        wrote on last edited by
        #4

        The odds that any American president would go to war with China over Taiwan are pretty slim.

        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #5

          Our defensive plan (operation hellscape) would be initiated under any manner of presidents.

          Prolly not this one.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #6

            Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
            • taiwan_girlT Offline
              taiwan_girlT Offline
              taiwan_girl
              wrote on last edited by
              #7

              I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.

              China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)

              @Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.

              From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.

              JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                Our defensive plan (operation hellscape) would be initiated under any manner of presidents.

                Prolly not this one.

                JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #8

                @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                Our defensive plan (operation hellscape) would be initiated under any manner of presidents.

                Prolly not this one.

                Or the last one.

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                  JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #9

                  @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                  Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                  $100B investment. Yesterday.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  89th8 jon-nycJ taiwan_girlT 3 Replies Last reply
                  • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                    I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.

                    China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)

                    @Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.

                    From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.

                    JollyJ Offline
                    JollyJ Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #10

                    @taiwan_girl said in Taiwan:

                    I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.

                    China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)

                    @Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.

                    From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.

                    Speed bump.

                    The Chicoms do not care about casualties. They do not care what atrocities they have to commit to subdue a population.

                    Once they establish a reinforced beachhead, Taiwan is toast.

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • taiwan_girlT Offline
                      taiwan_girlT Offline
                      taiwan_girl
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #11

                      Yes, but............

                      Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Very similar to Korea where a lot of mountains, etc.

                      Of course, with enough time, etc. China would be able to take taiwan. It 50 times larger. But at what cost? It could easily turn into the US's vietnam or Russia's afghanistan, etc.

                      I think it would ruin Chinas economy, as there would be a lot of disinvestment in the country.

                      Also, I dont think that there is the same "will to fight" among the mainland Chinese. Defending your home country is worth X % battle strength increase. Most families are one child, and that one child is the child of one child parents. So, six people depend on that one child (4 x grandparents, 2x parents). Losing the family line will be a big deal. Wont be able to keep that quiet for long if the number of sons are killed or disabled. That could turn public opinion against President Xi.

                      Also, keeping an army supplied is easier with a common border (e.g. Russia/Ukraine). Doing it over 100 miles are sea is a bit more difficult.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • JollyJ Jolly

                        @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                        Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                        $100B investment. Yesterday.

                        89th8 Offline
                        89th8 Offline
                        89th
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #12

                        @Jolly said in Taiwan:

                        @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                        Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                        $100B investment. Yesterday.

                        Well, technically none yet. But $25 billion each year for the next 4 years. It's a start... well I guess Biden's "CHIPS" act was a start. Anyway...

                        JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • 89th8 89th

                          @Jolly said in Taiwan:

                          @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                          Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                          $100B investment. Yesterday.

                          Well, technically none yet. But $25 billion each year for the next 4 years. It's a start... well I guess Biden's "CHIPS" act was a start. Anyway...

                          JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #13

                          @89th said in Taiwan:

                          @Jolly said in Taiwan:

                          @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                          Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                          $100B investment. Yesterday.

                          Well, technically none yet. But $25 billion each year for the next 4 years. It's a start... well I guess Biden's "CHIPS" act was a start. Anyway...

                          Biden didn't get shit, except in his pants.

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Jolly

                            @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                            Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                            $100B investment. Yesterday.

                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #14

                            @Jolly said in Taiwan:

                            @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                            Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                            $100B investment. Yesterday.

                            We’re a third of the way through an earlier 65B investment from the same company. But it takes years.

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Offline
                              JollyJ Offline
                              Jolly
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #15

                              Make up your mind.

                              If it happens on Trump's watch, it's his.

                              Trump is pushing jobs. Less illegals taking jobs. Legal immigrants in skills shortage areas. Education dollars in block grants, allowing states to fund vo-tech programs. Tariffs that makes manufacturing in the U.S. more attractive (Honda is moving a planned plant from Mexico to Indiana, as announced yesterday).

                              And OTOH, Trump is actually going to cut jobs...Government jobs. Hopefully, that means more money in the private sector, along with less debt, since not as much money is needed by the government.

                              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                #16

                                The 100B announced the other day is on top of the 65B from a few years ago. Even that previous is only 1/3 spent (roughly, 1 of 3 planned fabs built) as it takes years and years to build chip fabs. It’s not clear China plans on waiting for us. That was my point.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Offline
                                  JollyJ Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #17

                                  Gotta start somewhere.

                                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                    #18

                                    You do. But the point is that the investment isn’t a reason why we don’t need to care about Taiwans fate. Maybe it’s a reason we won’t need to in 10 years.

                                    But today, Operation Hellscape is our friend.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • N Offline
                                      N Offline
                                      NobodySock
                                      wrote on last edited by NobodySock
                                      #19

                                      Taiwan is definitely happening on Trump's watch. Of course he will stand by. Russia and China both have that red button to flaunt and are more willing to use it when it's one guy's choice. What are the guardrails preventing our new autocrat from doing the same? But it goes against what they live for, power. Once the missiles start flying, the only power they will have if they survive is over the cockroaches. Do you think of the thousands of missiles both China and Russia possess, that one or two are aimed at Sardinia? If not, we can survive on seafood and 4 million sheep for a long long time.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • JollyJ Jolly

                                        @jon-nyc said in Taiwan:

                                        Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.

                                        $100B investment. Yesterday.

                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girl
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #20

                                        @Jolly said in Taiwan:

                                        $100B investment. Yesterday.

                                        https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2025/03/05/2003832893

                                        The government would ensure that the most advanced chipmaking technology stays in Taiwan while assisting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) in investing overseas, the Presidential Office said yesterday.

                                        The statement follows a joint announcement by the world’s largest contract chipmaker and US President Donald Trump on Monday that TSMC would invest an additional US$100 billion over the next four years to expand its semiconductor manufacturing operations in the US, which would include construction of three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center.

                                        The government knew about the deal in advance and would assist, Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo (郭雅慧) said yesterday.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                          #21

                                          That is a complication. We want to liberate ourselves from dependence on Taiwan and they very much want us not to do so, in order that we have more skin in the Taiwan straight game.

                                          Only non-witches get due process.

                                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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