Taiwan
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:25 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:28 last edited by
Speed bump.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:33 last edited by
I mean, if you were China, why wouldn't you just sweep over Taiwan and take it over now? The odds that Trump would fight back seem very slim to me.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:40 last edited by
The odds that any American president would go to war with China over Taiwan are pretty slim.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:58 last edited by
Our defensive plan (operation hellscape) would be initiated under any manner of presidents.
Prolly not this one.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 14:59 last edited by
Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 15:20 last edited by
I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.
China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)
@Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.
From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.
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Our defensive plan (operation hellscape) would be initiated under any manner of presidents.
Prolly not this one.
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I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.
China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)
@Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.
From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.
wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:06 last edited by@taiwan_girl said in Taiwan:
I mentioned in my Taiwan vacation thread, there were almost constant Taiwan air force flights going on.
China is trying to just wear down the Taiwan airmen. Taiwan has to scramble and respond to all of these flights, and obviously has a much smaller number of pilots and planes. Airmen fatigue is becoming a problem. (Same for the navy also)
@Jolly @89th I think you underestimate how easy it would be for China to invade. To move the necessary people, you have to cross more than 100 miles of sea. There is a lot of technology guarding the coast line, and I think that the will of the people would be pretty strong.
From my mind, I think that china would attempt a blockade of Taiwan rather than a direct invasion.
Speed bump.
The Chicoms do not care about casualties. They do not care what atrocities they have to commit to subdue a population.
Once they establish a reinforced beachhead, Taiwan is toast.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:15 last edited by
Yes, but............
Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Very similar to Korea where a lot of mountains, etc.
Of course, with enough time, etc. China would be able to take taiwan. It 50 times larger. But at what cost? It could easily turn into the US's vietnam or Russia's afghanistan, etc.
I think it would ruin Chinas economy, as there would be a lot of disinvestment in the country.
Also, I dont think that there is the same "will to fight" among the mainland Chinese. Defending your home country is worth X % battle strength increase. Most families are one child, and that one child is the child of one child parents. So, six people depend on that one child (4 x grandparents, 2x parents). Losing the family line will be a big deal. Wont be able to keep that quiet for long if the number of sons are killed or disabled. That could turn public opinion against President Xi.
Also, keeping an army supplied is easier with a common border (e.g. Russia/Ukraine). Doing it over 100 miles are sea is a bit more difficult.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:19 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:22 last edited by
Especially when we’re still utterly dependent on it for microchips.
$100B investment. Yesterday.
Well, technically none yet. But $25 billion each year for the next 4 years. It's a start... well I guess Biden's "CHIPS" act was a start. Anyway...
Biden didn't get shit, except in his pants.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:27 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:46 last edited by
Make up your mind.
If it happens on Trump's watch, it's his.
Trump is pushing jobs. Less illegals taking jobs. Legal immigrants in skills shortage areas. Education dollars in block grants, allowing states to fund vo-tech programs. Tariffs that makes manufacturing in the U.S. more attractive (Honda is moving a planned plant from Mexico to Indiana, as announced yesterday).
And OTOH, Trump is actually going to cut jobs...Government jobs. Hopefully, that means more money in the private sector, along with less debt, since not as much money is needed by the government.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 16:54 last edited by jon-nyc 3 Apr 2025, 16:55
The 100B announced the other day is on top of the 65B from a few years ago. Even that previous is only 1/3 spent (roughly, 1 of 3 planned fabs built) as it takes years and years to build chip fabs. It’s not clear China plans on waiting for us. That was my point.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 17:53 last edited by
Gotta start somewhere.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 18:17 last edited by jon-nyc 3 Apr 2025, 18:18
You do. But the point is that the investment isn’t a reason why we don’t need to care about Taiwans fate. Maybe it’s a reason we won’t need to in 10 years.
But today, Operation Hellscape is our friend.
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wrote on 4 Mar 2025, 23:23 last edited by NobodySock 3 Apr 2025, 23:25
Taiwan is definitely happening on Trump's watch. Of course he will stand by. Russia and China both have that red button to flaunt and are more willing to use it when it's one guy's choice. What are the guardrails preventing our new autocrat from doing the same? But it goes against what they live for, power. Once the missiles start flying, the only power they will have if they survive is over the cockroaches. Do you think of the thousands of missiles both China and Russia possess, that one or two are aimed at Sardinia? If not, we can survive on seafood and 4 million sheep for a long long time.
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wrote on 5 Mar 2025, 01:26 last edited by
$100B investment. Yesterday.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2025/03/05/2003832893
The government would ensure that the most advanced chipmaking technology stays in Taiwan while assisting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) in investing overseas, the Presidential Office said yesterday.
The statement follows a joint announcement by the world’s largest contract chipmaker and US President Donald Trump on Monday that TSMC would invest an additional US$100 billion over the next four years to expand its semiconductor manufacturing operations in the US, which would include construction of three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center.
The government knew about the deal in advance and would assist, Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo (郭雅慧) said yesterday.