The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
-
VDH is on board.
Victor Davis Hanson: THE SIGNALS ARE ALL POINTING THE SAME DIRECTIONNo U.S. analyst knows better how to cut through the fog of war than Stanford University Prof. @VDHanson.
In the clip below, Hanson, who’s studied how wars end for 50 years, says the tide has turned in America’s favor against Iran. Forget the rancid propaganda flowing from all quarters related to the Iran conflict and how it is going - Hanson says look at how everyone else is behaving.
Hanson’s Key Points:
• Europeans: They never touch a conflict until they smell victory. Early on? Crickets. Now they’re quietly moving assets and offering support. Pure calculation — they’ve read the battlefield and decided which side wins.
• Gulf petro-states: Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris survive by reading the room perfectly. They’re expelling Iranian attachés, silently intercepting Iranian missiles over their capitals, and the UAE just reaffirmed its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the U.S. mid-war. These are not gestures — they’re bets. And they’re all-in on America.
• Al Jazeera: The Qatari state network that usually bashes U.S. actions (and hosts Hamas offices) is now calling America’s bombing campaign “brilliant” and “underestimated.” When the outlet that hosts both the biggest U.S. air base and Hamas praises U.S. effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: they think we’re winning.
• Military reality: A-10 Warthogs and Apache gunships are now flying strike missions inside Iranian airspace at will. These slow, low-flying platforms only appear when enemy air defenses are effectively gone. Confirms what’s really happening on the ground.
Iran’s only play left is rope-a-dope: drag it out, hope U.S. public opinion flips, pray midterms pressure Trump to quit.
VDH’s verdict: If Trump sees it through — and he will — the regime falls. Not in years. Pretty soon.
Bottom line: Watch what people do, not what they say. Every player with skin in the game is betting on America.
-
“TAVAJOH! TAVAJOH! TAVAJOH!” a man’s voice announces, before going on to narrate a string of numbers in no apparent order, slowly and rhythmically. After nearly two hours, the calls of “Attention!” in Persian stop, only to resume again hours later.
The broadcast has been playing twice a day on a shortwave frequency since the start of the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28.
According to Priyom, an organization which tracks and analyses global military and intelligence use of shortwave radio, using established radio-location techniques, the broadcast was first heard as the US bombing of Iran began. It has since played on the 7910 kHz shortwave frequency like clockwork—at 02.00 UTC and again at 18.00 UTC.
and
Number stations are shortwave radio broadcasts that play strings of numbers or codes that sound random—like the one now heard in Iran. “It is an encrypted radio message used by foreign intelligence services, often as part of a complex operation by intelligence agencies and militaries,” says Maris Goldmanis, a Latvian historian and avid numbers stations researcher.
Number stations are most commonly associated with espionage. “For intelligence agencies, it is important to communicate with their spies to gather intelligence,” says John Sipher, a former US intelligence officer who served 28 years in the CIA’s National Clandestine Service. “This is not always possible in person due to political constraints or conflict. This is where number stations come in.”
and
Because the broadcasts are encrypted and designed to be covert, those details may remain unclear for years, Goldmanis says. The structured nature of the transmission—its fixed schedule and consistent use of frequencies—further suggests it is part of a planned operation.
One theory is that the broadcasts originate from Iran itself, as part of its wartime intelligence efforts—particularly if traditional covert communication channels have been disrupted. “Such a station would have appeared if the Iranian intelligence service had lost its usual way of covert communication with the Iranian agents abroad because of the Israeli and US strikes and was now required to use a shortwave radio to send messages and instructions,” he says.
However, another more widely backed theory is that perhaps the US, Israel, or an Iranian opposition group in exile that is based in Europe is using shortwave transmitters to reach allies inside. “There is also a suggestion that these broadcasts are used to confuse and distract the Iranian security,” Goldmanis adds.
-
General Mattis:
“Iran right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait,” Mattis said during the CERAweek by S&P Global conference. “You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through.”
“We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen,” Mattis said. “I can’t identify a lot of options.”https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/mattis-ending-iran-war-now-cede-hormuz-00841109
-
Why would they at this point? It really doesn't make sense unless something has happened at high levels in Iran.
-
Like I said, I can't make heads or tails of it.
Maybe it’s just Trump trying to
calmcon down the markets.Elbows up!
-
Like I said, I can't make heads or tails of it.
Maybe it’s just Trump trying to
calmcon down the markets. -
Like I said, I can't make heads or tails of it.
Maybe it’s just Trump trying to
calmcon down the markets. -
I have a feeling no one is really in charge in Iran.
"You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible." — Thomas Sowell
-
Funny, just yesterday as Trump was talking about these deal makers, I was thinking (and truly I'm no expert at all), who exactly is in charge in that country to make decisions?
I'm not really sure what the goal is here, last year I thought we wiped out all of their nuke bomb facilities. Guess not? Maybe we should've waited for there to be mass protests in the street and then fly in overheads and wipe out the leadership the people were protesting against, then let the protest momentum continue?
Right now we seem to be in the business of creating bomb vacuums against an enemy whose defense strategy is to randomly shoot missiles and drones at everyone around them while shitting in their own pool so no one can swim.
-
I have a feeling no one is really in charge in Iran.
I have a feeling no one is really in charge in Iran.
According to BBC reporting the Iranians have said that right now “the US is negotiating with itself”:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn8dldl0jx9t?post=asset%3Ac827718d-a478-4809-aba4-dcf6f4f1dcc5#postNot sure who the one telling the fibs is in this game of smoke and mirrors.
-
I have a feeling no one is really in charge in Iran.
According to BBC reporting the Iranians have said that right now “the US is negotiating with itself”:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn8dldl0jx9t?post=asset%3Ac827718d-a478-4809-aba4-dcf6f4f1dcc5#postNot sure who the one telling the fibs is in this game of smoke and mirrors.
-
Well it’s clear the administration is negotiating with somebody there. Sounds like the people he’s talking to don’t have suppprt of some or all of the IRGC. If you recall he said he didn’t want to give a name so that the person didn’t get killed.
It’s really hard to know what’s going on now.
Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
-
Iran issues its own maximalist conditions to end the war…..
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn8dldl0jx9t?post=asset%3A95cce47e-33a2-4b62-a70f-e08d18561586#post
Seems that the Iranians were correct, Trump’s team has been negotiating these past couple of days with itself.
Looks like there’ll be US boots on the ground sooner rather than later.
-
Iran issues its own maximalist conditions to end the war…..
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn8dldl0jx9t?post=asset%3A95cce47e-33a2-4b62-a70f-e08d18561586#post
Seems that the Iranians were correct, Trump’s team has been negotiating these past couple of days with itself.
Looks like there’ll be US boots on the ground sooner rather than later.
@Renauda Unfortunately, I agree.
Of the five points mentioned in the article, #1 is the only one that would have any sort of possible of happening. Definitely compromises will probably have to be done on both sides. From a practical point of view, the US obviously is in the stronger position, but the longer this goes on, public opinion, etc. almost balances that out for the Iranians.
-
Well it’s clear the administration is negotiating with somebody there. Sounds like the people he’s talking to don’t have suppprt of some or all of the IRGC. If you recall he said he didn’t want to give a name so that the person didn’t get killed.
It’s really hard to know what’s going on now.
Well it’s clear the administration is negotiating with somebody there. Sounds like the people he’s talking to don’t have suppprt of some or all of the IRGC. If you recall he said he didn’t want to give a name so that the person didn’t get killed.
It’s really hard to know what’s going on now.
Maybe the Iranian equivalent to Rudolf Hess?
Or maybe someone who approached Steve Witkoff through his associate Kirill Dimitriev?
-
Well it’s clear the administration is negotiating with somebody there. Sounds like the people he’s talking to don’t have suppprt of some or all of the IRGC. If you recall he said he didn’t want to give a name so that the person didn’t get killed.
It’s really hard to know what’s going on now.
Maybe the Iranian equivalent to Rudolf Hess?
Or maybe someone who approached Steve Witkoff through his associate Kirill Dimitriev?
Well it’s clear the administration is negotiating with somebody there. Sounds like the people he’s talking to don’t have suppprt of some or all of the IRGC. If you recall he said he didn’t want to give a name so that the person didn’t get killed.
It’s really hard to know what’s going on now.
Maybe the Iranian equivalent to Rudolf Hess?
Exactly.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login