The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[Mik]

The devil is in the details and the wording. Trump may not have contacted them, but that leaves open the possibility they contacted him. I put no stock in either assertion.

I suspect if any did it would be W.

[kluurs]

First off, he didn't say that the predecessor was a living past president - and second, he didn't exclude that the past-president was #45.

[Renauda]

@kluurs

and second, he didn't exclude that the past-president was #45.

Bingo!

[Mik]

An astute observation.

[kluurs]

Best strategic idea since a mustached guy decided he could wage a 3 front war

[Axtremus]

And just like that ... Greenland is spared.
(Until the next episode.)

[AndyD]

Looks like part of the US to me

[jon-nyc]

He’s getting frustrated. But at the end of the day it will be really hard to declare victory if he can’t open the strait. Giving up without doing so will embolden the regime and change the calculus of our allies in the gulf and beyond.

[Mik]

It's SO too late to pull the "allies" in. You break it...

I'm not sure what they could really add to the picture that we can't anyway.

[jon-nyc]

My understanding is raw numbers of ships for escorts. Something like 130 ships a day traverse the straight. Even in small convoys you need a lot of ships.

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

He’s getting frustrated. But at the end of the day it will be really hard to declare victory if he can’t open the strait. Giving up without doing so will embolden the regime and change the calculus of our allies in the gulf and beyond.

Seems to me, keeping “the Strait” open for safe passage is very much in the interests of several multinational American oil and gas producers. There are also both large and small US based O & G equipment manufacturers and service companies operating throughout the Persian Gulf which depend on those shipping lanes.

The Gulf region supplies Asia with the bulk its sulphur and potash for fertiliser production. With the Strait closed, this driving to price of fertiliser up globally. Owing to this great uncertainty, the rising costs of diesel fuel and fertiliser will make 2026 to be an expensive year for US farmers to sow their fields. Those added expenses will be felt by virtually everyone in the US when they go to the grocery store. If there was no affordability crisis before this, there soon will be especially come autumn.

So for Trump to say “we don’t” [use it] is wholly false.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah as I said before my fear (and, frankly, expectation) is that he’ll give up when the political price of continuing the war gets too high and just paint a bullseye around the current state of things, whatever they happen to be. This could end up being part of it.