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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

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  • 89th8 Offline
    89th8 Offline
    89th
    wrote last edited by
    #1383

    I chuckled when Vance said the hard liners in the Iranian government are going to over-emphasize the good parts and under-emphasize the bad parts. You know, unlike anything Vance and Trump would do.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      Exceptionally good analysis by Andrew Fox, former British Army paratrooper and lecturer in war studies at Sandhurst. A tough, tough read in places.

      I was unaware of Erdogan's role. We had commented here on 'what happened to arming the Kurds?' but never had a good answer.

      There's a lot here, highly recommended.

      https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-debacle?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=z0uop&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

      89th8 Offline
      89th8 Offline
      89th
      wrote last edited by
      #1384

      @jon-nyc said:

      Exceptionally good analysis by Andrew Fox, former British Army paratrooper and lecturer in war studies at Sandhurst. A tough, tough read in places.

      I was unaware of Erdogan's role. We had commented here on 'what happened to arming the Kurds?' but never had a good answer.

      There's a lot here, highly recommended.

      https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-debacle?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=z0uop&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

      From my TARS robot:

      Failed Strategic Objective: The U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran based on a maximalist plan targeting regime collapse, but the operation failed to trigger a popular internal uprising or a successful Kurdish ground front.

      The Turkish Veto: A planned ground invasion from Iraqi Kurdistan was abruptly halted and abandoned after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intervened and pressured President Trump, exposing a critical vulnerability in the war plan.

      The Hormuz Oil Shock: Iran retaliated by effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, threatening a massive global oil shock that could have pushed U.S. gasoline prices well above $5 to $7 a gallon.

      Depleted Missile Arsenals: Iran's highly accurate ballistic missile strikes inflicted significant regional damage and forced the U.S. to rapidly consume expensive interceptor stocks, creating dangerous ammunition shortages that now affect defense readiness for Europe and Taiwan.

      A Rushed Ceasefire: To avoid a catastrophic domestic economic hit from soaring oil prices, the Trump administration rushed into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Switzerland—effectively conceding a ceasefire that leaves the Iranian regime intact, active in the field, and economically relieved.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote last edited by
        #1385

        I know reading is passé these days but honestly read it when you're eating your sandwich or whatever. It's worth it.

        There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

        1 Reply Last reply
        • 89th8 Offline
          89th8 Offline
          89th
          wrote last edited by
          #1386

          I have it open on a tab to do so when I have a few minutes for sure.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • X xenon

            I don’t understand why republicans aren’t revolting against this.

            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote last edited by
            #1387

            @xenon said:

            I don’t understand why republicans aren’t revolting against this.

            An exception.

            There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote last edited by
              #1388

              Not a Republican politician, but definitely a big right of center voice in finance.

              There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                N Offline
                N Offline
                NobodySock
                wrote last edited by NobodySock
                #1389

                @jon-nyc said:

                Rubio is not even giving thought to Iran. He is totally consumed with operation free Cuba.

                None of these sycophants are very smart in the end. They don’t see how the future will present itself to them after all of their dastardly deeds. Marco Rubio will be wearing bright orange prison jumpers one day. His thought that he will be president one day? This is how un serious a person he is.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote last edited by
                  #1390

                  He’s at least prescient.

                  There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1391

                    Iran and Oman to collect ‘transit fees’ for the strait.

                    There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • AxtremusA Away
                      AxtremusA Away
                      Axtremus
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1392

                      Oy.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote last edited by
                        #1393

                        Hey @bachophile, how do you see his odds of getting reelected?

                        There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote last edited by
                          #1394

                          Just thinking out loud, I wonder what the chances are Israel does something substantial in Lebanon in the hopes that Iran retaliates and things escalate, etc, with hopes of scuttling the MOU.

                          There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote last edited by
                            #1395

                            This is one of the handful of journalists who has Trump’s cell and regularly has conversations with him. (Not suggesting Trump is a source for this story, just pointing out he has real access)

                            There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              Exceptionally good analysis by Andrew Fox, former British Army paratrooper and lecturer in war studies at Sandhurst. A tough, tough read in places.

                              I was unaware of Erdogan's role. We had commented here on 'what happened to arming the Kurds?' but never had a good answer.

                              There's a lot here, highly recommended.

                              https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-debacle?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=z0uop&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

                              RenaudaR Offline
                              RenaudaR Offline
                              Renauda
                              wrote last edited by Renauda
                              #1396

                              @jon-nyc

                              Excellent analysis. Sobering too. Like yourself I was not aware of how Erdogan played into it all. Makes sense though from the Turkish perspective.

                              Elbows up!

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote last edited by
                                #1397

                                Yeah, it's a great piece. I'm going to start paying attention to that guy.

                                There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #1398

                                  Imagine the reaction if, in 2015, John Kerry had said “the IRGC has seen the error of its ways”.

                                  There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #1399

                                    There’s always a Trump tweet.

                                    There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • A Offline
                                      A Offline
                                      AndyD
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #1400

                                      The real problem with modern day wars is they are like boxing matches where only jabs are allowed. And that even includes Gaza, despite the destruction and loss of life.
                                      Pussyfooting about instead of demanding and ensuring unconditional surrender by every means.

                                      We've had nearly 50 years of this internationally murderous Iranian regime and can only look forward to it continuing.
                                      Any funds released to it will certainly end up in the hands of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

                                      I'm going to buy an electric car.
                                      Over the last few decades the whole professional British military has been reduced to the point where can now fit inside a football stadium!

                                      Meanwhile on a positive note, Ukraine are doing well against Russia, and Putin will be dead within a decade.
                                      And China will soon be coming to terms with its young population crisis. So hopefully both countries will be less helpful towards Iran and N.Korea

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #1401

                                        On the bright side.

                                        There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #1402

                                          I assume by ‘final deal’ they mean the one supposedly coming in 60 days.

                                          There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                          1 Reply Last reply

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