The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[jon-nyc]

Exceptionally good analysis by Andrew Fox, former British Army paratrooper and lecturer in war studies at Sandhurst. A tough, tough read in places.

I was unaware of Erdogan's role. We had commented here on 'what happened to arming the Kurds?' but never had a good answer.

There's a lot here, highly recommended.

https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-debacle?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=z0uop&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

[89th]

I chuckled when Vance said the hard liners in the Iranian government are going to over-emphasize the good parts and under-emphasize the bad parts. You know, unlike anything Vance and Trump would do.

[89th]

@jon-nyc said:

Exceptionally good analysis by Andrew Fox, former British Army paratrooper and lecturer in war studies at Sandhurst. A tough, tough read in places.

I was unaware of Erdogan's role. We had commented here on 'what happened to arming the Kurds?' but never had a good answer.

There's a lot here, highly recommended.

https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-debacle?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=z0uop&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

From my TARS robot:

Failed Strategic Objective: The U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran based on a maximalist plan targeting regime collapse, but the operation failed to trigger a popular internal uprising or a successful Kurdish ground front.

The Turkish Veto: A planned ground invasion from Iraqi Kurdistan was abruptly halted and abandoned after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intervened and pressured President Trump, exposing a critical vulnerability in the war plan.

The Hormuz Oil Shock: Iran retaliated by effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, threatening a massive global oil shock that could have pushed U.S. gasoline prices well above $5 to $7 a gallon.

Depleted Missile Arsenals: Iran's highly accurate ballistic missile strikes inflicted significant regional damage and forced the U.S. to rapidly consume expensive interceptor stocks, creating dangerous ammunition shortages that now affect defense readiness for Europe and Taiwan.

A Rushed Ceasefire: To avoid a catastrophic domestic economic hit from soaring oil prices, the Trump administration rushed into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Switzerland—effectively conceding a ceasefire that leaves the Iranian regime intact, active in the field, and economically relieved.

[jon-nyc]

I know reading is passé these days but honestly read it when you're eating your sandwich or whatever. It's worth it.

[89th]

I have it open on a tab to do so when I have a few minutes for sure.

[jon-nyc]

@xenon said:

I don’t understand why republicans aren’t revolting against this.

An exception.

[jon-nyc]

Not a Republican politician, but definitely a big right of center voice in finance.

[NobodySock]

[jon-nyc]

He’s at least prescient.

[jon-nyc]

Iran and Oman to collect ‘transit fees’ for the strait.

[Axtremus]

Oy.