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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

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  • MikM Offline
    MikM Offline
    Mik
    wrote last edited by
    #1303

    At the very least Iran's ability to project power either directly or through proxies is severely degraded. The continued blockade will eventually bring their economy to its knees. I don't see any way to claim Iran won this conflict.

    Again, this should have been done during W's administration. we would not be very concerned with the amount of enriched uranium.

    "You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible." — Thomas Sowell

    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
    • RenaudaR Offline
      RenaudaR Offline
      Renauda
      wrote last edited by
      #1304

      I highly doubt victory or winning applies to either belligerent in this pig’s breakfast:

      https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedp3lee059o

      Elbows up!

      1 Reply Last reply
      • MikM Mik

        At the very least Iran's ability to project power either directly or through proxies is severely degraded. The continued blockade will eventually bring their economy to its knees. I don't see any way to claim Iran won this conflict.

        Again, this should have been done during W's administration. we would not be very concerned with the amount of enriched uranium.

        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote last edited by
        #1305

        @Mik said:

        At the very least Iran's ability to project power either directly or through proxies is severely degraded. The continued blockade will eventually bring their economy to its knees. I don't see any way to claim Iran won this conflict.

        It’s not over yet, but if they retain control of the strait, or are at all times a press release from regaining it, that’s an L for us.

        I doubt that would have been a controversial statement prior to February.

        I would also say that if the only way we regain a neutral strait and stop enrichment is by giving them something very much like the JPCOA, that’s an L for Trump if not for the USA. That most definitely wouldn’t have been controversial among republicans prior to 2/28.

        Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote last edited by
          #1306

          Interesting.

          Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

          1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote last edited by
            #1307

            Trump may have a reasonable point.

            Education is extremely important.

            W 1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote last edited by
              #1308

              They have different cost/benefit analyses. Trump wants a deal above (almost) all. Israel wants to neuter its enemies above (almost) all.

              Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

              HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                They have different cost/benefit analyses. Trump wants a deal above (almost) all. Israel wants to neuter its enemies above (almost) all.

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote last edited by
                #1309

                @jon-nyc said:

                They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                Education is extremely important.

                RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                • HoraceH Horace

                  Trump may have a reasonable point.

                  W Offline
                  W Offline
                  Wim
                  wrote last edited by
                  #1310

                  @Horace If there's a deal between the US and Iran, chances are high Netanyahu will have to face jail.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • HoraceH Horace

                    @jon-nyc said:

                    They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                    Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                    RenaudaR Offline
                    RenaudaR Offline
                    Renauda
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1311

                    @Horace said:

                    @jon-nyc said:

                    They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                    Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                    So what is your hunch on the matter?

                    Elbows up!

                    HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                    • RenaudaR Renauda

                      @Horace said:

                      @jon-nyc said:

                      They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                      Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                      So what is your hunch on the matter?

                      HoraceH Offline
                      HoraceH Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1312

                      @Renauda said:

                      @Horace said:

                      @jon-nyc said:

                      They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                      Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                      So what is your hunch on the matter?

                      I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".

                      I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                      • HoraceH Horace

                        @Renauda said:

                        @Horace said:

                        @jon-nyc said:

                        They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                        Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                        So what is your hunch on the matter?

                        I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".

                        I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.

                        RenaudaR Offline
                        RenaudaR Offline
                        Renauda
                        wrote last edited by
                        #1313

                        @Horace said:

                        @Renauda said:

                        @Horace said:

                        @jon-nyc said:

                        They have different cost/benefit analyses.

                        Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.

                        So what is your hunch on the matter?

                        I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".

                        I too doubt Netanyahu has much of anything on Trump other than some dubious money deals that went down long before he took up elected office. Probably involves mobster Russian Jews and their ill gotten gains arising from the demise of the USSR and the anarchy of the Yeltsin era.

                        I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.

                        You have mentioned all that before. I am more interested in your personal
                        hunch regarding the distracting dog’s breakfast of choice that is now Iran and the Persian Gulf.

                        Elbows up!

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • HoraceH Offline
                          HoraceH Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote last edited by
                          #1314

                          No strong opinion about Trump's motivations. The fact that Rubio said right after the start that Israel said it was going with or without the US, and that played a role, seems feasible. Even if he did walk that back at some point. Not sure how or why he would have said that if there's wasn't some truth to it.

                          Clearly Trump likes the feeling that he's a strong man capable of exerting his will on the world by way of military force. So that played a role too.

                          It's probably important not to imagine reasoning that seems complicated or nuanced, because Trump doesn't do complicated or nuanced.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote last edited by
                            #1315

                            ISW summaries of both the Iran and Ukraine wars are worth following.

                            Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • HoraceH Horace

                              No strong opinion about Trump's motivations. The fact that Rubio said right after the start that Israel said it was going with or without the US, and that played a role, seems feasible. Even if he did walk that back at some point. Not sure how or why he would have said that if there's wasn't some truth to it.

                              Clearly Trump likes the feeling that he's a strong man capable of exerting his will on the world by way of military force. So that played a role too.

                              It's probably important not to imagine reasoning that seems complicated or nuanced, because Trump doesn't do complicated or nuanced.

                              RenaudaR Offline
                              RenaudaR Offline
                              Renauda
                              wrote last edited by
                              #1316

                              @Horace

                              Clearly Trump likes the feeling that he's a strong man capable of exerting his will on the world by way of military force. So that played a role too.

                              Parse that one amongst history’s rubbish bin of demagogues and tyrants.

                              Elbows up!

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                #1317

                                Interesting. But could give him someone to blame if, as it looks now, we take the L.

                                Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Offline
                                  MikM Offline
                                  Mik
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #1318

                                  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/everyone-assumes-america-can-just-bomb-iran-again-whenever-it-wants-it-can-t/ar-AA24VIiG?cvpid=891ce15cf02b4ebedf103f279d185f76

                                  "You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible." — Thomas Sowell

                                  AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Mik

                                    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/everyone-assumes-america-can-just-bomb-iran-again-whenever-it-wants-it-can-t/ar-AA24VIiG?cvpid=891ce15cf02b4ebedf103f279d185f76

                                    AxtremusA Offline
                                    AxtremusA Offline
                                    Axtremus
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #1319

                                    @Mik said:

                                    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/everyone-assumes-america-can-just-bomb-iran-again-whenever-it-wants-it-can-t/ar-AA24VIiG?cvpid=891ce15cf02b4ebedf103f279d185f76

                                    There goes the "Best post in a long time on TNCR." 🤷

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • A Offline
                                      A Offline
                                      AndyD
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #1320

                                      😄 I'm pretty certain the West's military-industrial complex is up to the job of replacing whatever is used quicker than any of us imagine; and also of prioritising production, e.g. of useful new arms such as long range drones.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • A Offline
                                        A Offline
                                        AndyD
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #1321

                                        100 days into the war, Israel precision bombed the Hezbollah command centre for Lebanon, 10 missiles hit a tower block in Beirut.
                                        Retaliation has been promised.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                          #1322

                                          Im getting close to the point where, when Trump says ‘we’re very close to a deal’, my priors update in the opposite direction.

                                          Lo, no accord shall bloom 'twixt us and that realm, save they do kneel in token of their utter, soul-deep shame! No parley shall we hold, no treaty sign, until their will is broken, and their strength doth lie as dust before our might. -DJT, 3/6/26

                                          1 Reply Last reply

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