The Iran Nuclear Program thread

[jon-nyc]

Polymarket at 67.5%

[jon-nyc]

Mass exodus from Tehran.

[jon-nyc]

Nice visual of poymarket odds.

[jon-nyc]

(not endorsing his conclusion, just passing on the info that China issued advice to its citizens)

[jon-nyc]

Another view of traffic heading out of Tehran.

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

[Mik]

Here we go.

Of course I wanted Bush to do this in 2006.

[jon-nyc]

MagaRat Taylor Greene is against it.

[Mik]

I’m not getting any confirmation.

[Renauda]

[Mik]

I just love people who want to define what a real American is.

[89th]

Once again I've been offline for a few hours, just put the kids to bed, and now I get my news updates from TNCR! Interesting to scan this thread over the last few hours.

My first thought as @jon-nyc was posting the market odds was... I could see Trump going in for the "gimme putt" after Israel does most of the work, so that we can claim victory.

Nonetheless, Jon you are right there are things we do well and things we don't. Blow shit up is one thing we do really well. And will it cause WW3? I doubt it. I'm not an expert in the slightest, but I can't imagine the big boys like China or Russia are willing to jump into the poker hand for Iran. The folks that count on Iran seem to be the weaker Islamic countries that don't have many chips to play poker with in the first place. So WW3? Doubtful. Iran losing and regime change? Probably... although could be decades of chaos within as a result. Maybe that's a good thing, better than a well-armed and/or nuclear Iran that threatens Israel's existence and by proxy, the western free world.

[Mik]

I think what we need to consider is just how deep the centrifuges at Fordo are. There’s no guarantee the MOPs would be successful.

[Renauda]

Am more drawn to analyses of events and crises such as this and Ukraine.

A an old friend of mine who lives in Ottawa sent me the following. Pretty compelling reading about Israel’s capabilities and Iran’s lack thereof. A few parallels with what Ukraine has been achieving lately against Russia. Both wars will be studied at military academies for some time to come.

[jon-nyc]

lol.

[jon-nyc]

This guy raises a good point. It’s been a tough week for team drones. (Though to be fair Israel’s initial wave included drones that had been smuggled into Iran)

[jon-nyc]

China is advising its citizens to leave Iran immediately.

[Mik]