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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • HoraceH Offline
    HoraceH Offline
    Horace
    wrote on last edited by
    #185

    I wonder how much money will go to the coffers through these tariffs. It seems like that's never talked about. I'm not sure it's even budgeted in the deficit forecasts. Of course, nobody knows what the tariffs will be, so there's good reason not to budget them.

    Education is extremely important.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • X Offline
      X Offline
      xenon
      wrote on last edited by
      #186

      Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

      But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

      HoraceH jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
      • X xenon

        Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

        But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

        HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by Horace
        #187

        @xenon I think the practical effect of tariffs is necessarily a bit of both.

        But the part where it's a supposedly good thing to bring back a bunch of mindless assembly line jobs at inflated wages in a dying industry that is destined to be overtaken by machines, makes me a little sick in my stomach. Then if it got to the point where we didn't allow those jobs to be overtaken by machines, because of union protectionism, while the rest of the world sprinted past us with automation, that becomes dystopic. Manufacturing jobs are nobody's American dream.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #188

          If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

          The Brad

          HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
          • X xenon

            Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

            But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #189

            @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

            Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

            About a quarter of that are services, many really difficult to put tariffs on. Example: travel. When you go to Portugal and get a hotel room in Lisbon, that counts as an ‘import’.

            Imported goods are more like 3T. Of course the tariffs affect demand so you can’t just multiply that by 0.25. But it’s still a lot of money in taxes on the American people.

            You were warned.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

              If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

              HoraceH Offline
              HoraceH Offline
              Horace
              wrote on last edited by Horace
              #190

              @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

              If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

              I have hope that automation will be allowed to continue apace, and having automated factories in America would actually be a good thing. Musk is a pioneer of factory automation, so it's not far-fetched that this is in the mind of the administration.

              The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

              Education is extremely important.

              RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
              • HoraceH Horace

                @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

                I have hope that automation will be allowed to continue apace, and having automated factories in America would actually be a good thing. Musk is a pioneer of factory automation, so it's not far-fetched that this is in the mind of the administration.

                The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

                RenaudaR Offline
                RenaudaR Offline
                Renauda
                wrote on last edited by
                #191

                @Horace

                The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

                Take dairy. Hypothetically Canada caves and gets rid of its supply management that assigns the US a tariff free quota for dairy products. We too revert back to a government subsidy system as in the US and EU, to keep our domestic dairy industry viable - you know, the Support Your Local Farmer ethos. The problem though is that consumers here are so pissed off at the US that they refuse to buy US produced dairy products. Canadian distributors and suppliers stop importing because the demand is not there. Consumers would rather pay a premium for Canadian or EU made products because they are not of US origin.

                Once again I come back to the statement, you cannot fool the market.

                Elbows up!

                1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #192
                  1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                  2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Jolly
                    1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                    2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.
                    AxtremusA Away
                    AxtremusA Away
                    Axtremus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #193

                    @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

                    1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                    2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.

                    High asset prices and high PE ratios are products of market and consumer optimism.

                    I think the Trump policies are doing a great number on that optimism.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                      #194

                      I don’t see the sociological signs of a housing bubble but I agree with you on P/Es.

                      Housing is expensive, largely because we subsidize homeborrowership while restricting the fuck out of new supply.

                      It could come down as interest rates go back up, which seems inevitable.

                      You were warned.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #195

                        Funny from the Cato guy.

                        You were warned.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • CopperC Offline
                          CopperC Offline
                          Copper
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #196

                          If this is a good forecast housing might get a little cheaper.

                          https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bank-lending-rate

                          United States Average Monthly Prime Lending Rate

                          image.png

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #197

                            Well, it helps that baby boomers are dying, too.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #198

                              You were warned.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #199

                                IMG_3672.jpeg

                                You were warned.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • AxtremusA Away
                                  AxtremusA Away
                                  Axtremus
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #200

                                  Recession, "detox," "worth the pain," "not that bad" ...

                                  https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/business/economy/trump-recession-tariffs-inflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.404.CP0f.04Af70FBQrUj

                                  Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.

                                  “It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” ...

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                    Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                    Doctor Phibes
                                    wrote on last edited by Doctor Phibes
                                    #201

                                    They'll change their tune pretty quickly if there is a recession and Trump's popularity goes down the toilet.

                                    A bunch of millionaires and billionaires telling regular folk that they need to suffer for the common good is really going to go down well.

                                    I was only joking

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • 89th8 Offline
                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #202

                                      image.png

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                                        "Tariffs are a tax hike on foreign countries. Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people." Either I totally am wrong (possible) or I think the white house truly has NO idea what a tariff is and who pays it. WTFFFFFFFF

                                        Of course she snips at the AP at the end of it.

                                        a good summary.

                                        For those who do not follow economics, here's basically what happened:

                                        Leavitt: 2+2=Purple.
                                        AP Reporter: I have a calculator and 2+2=4.
                                        Leavitt: How DARE you insult my math skills!
                                        Conservative Media: White House DESTROYS disrespectful and un-American AP reporter.

                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                                        taiwan_girl
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #203

                                        @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                                        @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                                        "Tariffs are a tax hike on foreign countries. Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people." Either I totally am wrong (possible) or I think the white house truly has NO idea what a tariff is and who pays it. WTFFFFFFFF

                                        Of course she snips at the AP at the end of it.

                                        a good summary.

                                        For those who do not follow economics, here's basically what happened:

                                        Leavitt: 2+2=Purple.
                                        AP Reporter: I have a calculator and 2+2=4.
                                        Leavitt: How DARE you insult my math skills!
                                        Conservative Media: White House DESTROYS disrespectful and un-American AP reporter.

                                        During an interview show over the weekend

                                        White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Associated Press reporter Josh Boak of "failing" to see President Trump's "long-term economic strategy" in a Sunday interview, days after he sparred with her over tariffs during a press briefing.

                                        "He [Boak] clearly fails to see President Trump's long-term economic strategy, which is to bring in so much revenue, so much wealth into our country through tariffs, that we can give larger tax cuts to the American people to put more money back into their pockets," Leavitt told Maria Bartiromo on "Sunday Morning Futures."

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor Phibes
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #204

                                          They think we're idiots.

                                          I was only joking

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