Trumpenomics

[xenon]

I’m going to assume that he takes an off-ramp if things get really hairy.

But what is the escape hatch if he starts digging his heels in?

[jon-nyc]

Interesting from Cato.

On shoring all Canadian aluminum would require "over 40 million megawatt-hours of electricity. This is nearly four and a half times the annual electricity production of the Hoover Dam, enough to power 460 data centers or the entire state of Nevada for a year"

[Renauda]

Premier of Ontario just announced 10 minutes ago that effective immediately Ontario will impose a 25% surcharge on its electricity exports into US until such time all threats of US tariffs against Canada are off the table. He also stated that if the US retaliates, he will increase the export surcharge or shut off all electrical power exports from Ontario into the US.

[xenon]

The premier of BC put in place legislation to start charging levies on commercial trucks going up to Alaska.

Not saying that’s the right thing to do - but these guys are going on their war footing.

[Horace]

I wonder what fraction of a percentage of the American economy these better trade agreements might even be worth. In the best case scenario that better trade agreements are the actual motivation here, rather than an attempt to remake an isolationist America, for which Maga does not have nearly enough runway, and so it would end up being a destructive and aborted project after the next election.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t know how we could have known that mercantilist trade policy would be captured by special interests.

[xenon]

Betting markets have recession chance at 40% right now.

[Horace]

Today seems to be verging on an historic daily loss. The market doesn't trust that Trump won't actually go through with the ruinous tariffs.

[Jolly]

Recession?

Don't think so. I do think we're in for a slow down.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t know that we’ve ever had a recession with a single author before. This is very preventable and who knows he may still back off.

[Renauda]

Slow down or full blown recession both trace back to one stupid narcissist who thought he could fool the market.

[Doctor Phibes]

Ok, I’m tired of winning.

[Renauda]

@Doctor-Phibes

Ok, I’m tired of winning.

No need to dog whistle the resident MAGAt troll. It will show up anyway barking the usual trite tidbit of vacuous snark.

[jon-nyc]

[Horace]

By my quick calculations, the S&P 500 companies alone lost about 15% of the national debt in market cap over the past month or so of tariff chaos.

Of course, market cap losses are not the same thing as getting that much liquid value out of the stocks. Any such attempt would drive the price way lower, I guess.

[xenon]

My worry is supply chain de-coupling. After Trump 45, the most successful part of his China policy was getting companies to factor in risks from investing in China.

It caused many new plant investments to shift away from China.

European and Canadian companies (really anyone), will now think twice before they invest in the US as a part of their supply chain or end market.

That’s not a win for the US. It seems like he’s burning the boats for some inexplicable reason.

[jon-nyc]

[Horace]

I might buy some calls if this keeps up.

[89th]

I never try and time the market... but if the S&P dips down to like 5,000... I'll probably change some investments into "super aggressive growth" mode to ride the eventual rise.

Keep in mind Biden saw a 60% increase in the S&P, and Trump 1st term also so a 60% increase. It hasn't been too bad over the last 5 years (see below) and has been great since 2010.

[NobodySock]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

Nobody’s talking about gas.. I just filled up at $2.80 per gallon.

5 bucks a gallon for Premium with cash. 5.25 with credit. But our gas is really a gas. So clean since we tax the ugly bits out of it.