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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #93

    IMG_3487.jpeg

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girl
      wrote on last edited by
      #94

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2025/03/04/economic-and-market-data-signal-a-recession-is-coming/

      Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
​

      That would be the worst economic growth since the second quarter of 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and set the stage for the widely accepted technical definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
​

      The National Bureau of Economic Research more broadly defines it as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
​

      Several other concerning signals have flashed regarding the health of the American economy, as consumer sentiment tumbled to a 15-month low, layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the stock market tanked, with the benchmark S&P 500 index falling 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.
​

      Models tracking the probability of a U.S. recession have simultaneously shifted to indicate a higher probability of an economic pullback.
​

      Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”

      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
      • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2025/03/04/economic-and-market-data-signal-a-recession-is-coming/

        Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
​

        That would be the worst economic growth since the second quarter of 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and set the stage for the widely accepted technical definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
​

        The National Bureau of Economic Research more broadly defines it as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
​

        Several other concerning signals have flashed regarding the health of the American economy, as consumer sentiment tumbled to a 15-month low, layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the stock market tanked, with the benchmark S&P 500 index falling 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.
​

        Models tracking the probability of a U.S. recession have simultaneously shifted to indicate a higher probability of an economic pullback.
​

        Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”

        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #95

        @taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2025/03/04/economic-and-market-data-signal-a-recession-is-coming/

        Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
​

        They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.

        Typical MAGAT projection. Accuse the other side of manipulating the numbers, then go manipulate the numbers.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          @taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2025/03/04/economic-and-market-data-signal-a-recession-is-coming/

          Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
​

          They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.

          Typical MAGAT projection. Accuse the other side of manipulating the numbers, then go manipulate the numbers.

          taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girlT Offline
          taiwan_girl
          wrote on last edited by
          #96

          @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

          They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.

          Yeah, I saw that. To me, you need a baseline to compare different periods and times. Changing the numbers to make yourself look better is not a good idea.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • 89th8 Offline
            89th8 Offline
            89th
            wrote on last edited by
            #97

            At 9:30...

            Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."

            What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...

            Link to video

            HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #98

              He either doesn’t understand them or he’s constantly lying about it. Unclear to me which is the more charitable. I think the bulk of the evidence points to the former. As the Cato guys point out, it may be the only policy position he’s been consistent about since the 80s.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              1 Reply Last reply
              • 89th8 89th

                At 9:30...

                Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."

                What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...

                Link to video

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #99

                @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                At 9:30...

                Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."

                What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...

                Link to video

                I wonder how many trillions have already been lost from the total market cap of US stocks.

                Education is extremely important.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • X Offline
                  X Offline
                  xenon
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #100

                  I’m going to assume that he takes an off-ramp if things get really hairy.

                  But what is the escape hatch if he starts digging his heels in?

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #101

                    Interesting from Cato.

                    On shoring all Canadian aluminum would require "over 40 million megawatt-hours of electricity. This is nearly four and a half times the annual electricity production of the Hoover Dam, enough to power 460 data centers or the entire state of Nevada for a year"

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • RenaudaR Offline
                      RenaudaR Offline
                      Renauda
                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                      #102

                      Premier of Ontario just announced 10 minutes ago that effective immediately Ontario will impose a 25% surcharge on its electricity exports into US until such time all threats of US tariffs against Canada are off the table. He also stated that if the US retaliates, he will increase the export surcharge or shut off all electrical power exports from Ontario into the US.

                      Elbows up!

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • X Offline
                        X Offline
                        xenon
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #103

                        The premier of BC put in place legislation to start charging levies on commercial trucks going up to Alaska.

                        Not saying that’s the right thing to do - but these guys are going on their war footing.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • HoraceH Offline
                          HoraceH Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #104

                          I wonder what fraction of a percentage of the American economy these better trade agreements might even be worth. In the best case scenario that better trade agreements are the actual motivation here, rather than an attempt to remake an isolationist America, for which Maga does not have nearly enough runway, and so it would end up being a destructive and aborted project after the next election.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #105

                            I don’t know how we could have known that mercantilist trade policy would be captured by special interests.

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • X Offline
                              X Offline
                              xenon
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #106

                              Betting markets have recession chance at 40% right now.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • HoraceH Offline
                                HoraceH Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #107

                                Today seems to be verging on an historic daily loss. The market doesn't trust that Trump won't actually go through with the ruinous tariffs.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Offline
                                  JollyJ Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #108

                                  Recession?

                                  Don't think so. I do think we're in for a slow down.

                                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #109

                                    I don’t know that we’ve ever had a recession with a single author before. This is very preventable and who knows he may still back off.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • RenaudaR Offline
                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      Renauda
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #110

                                      Slow down or full blown recession both trace back to one stupid narcissist who thought he could fool the market.

                                      Elbows up!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                        Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                        Doctor Phibes
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #111

                                        Ok, I’m tired of winning.

                                        I was only joking

                                        RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                                          Ok, I’m tired of winning.

                                          RenaudaR Offline
                                          RenaudaR Offline
                                          Renauda
                                          wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                          #112

                                          @Doctor-Phibes

                                          Ok, I’m tired of winning.

                                          No need to dog whistle the resident MAGAt troll. It will show up anyway barking the usual trite tidbit of vacuous snark.

                                          Elbows up!

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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