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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • HoraceH Offline
    HoraceH Offline
    Horace
    wrote last edited by
    #1047

    The US Economy Was Supposed to Be in a Recession By Now. What Happened?

    https://www.derekthompson.org/p/if-trumps-economic-ideas-are-so-terrible?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

    Education is extremely important.

    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
    • HoraceH Horace

      The US Economy Was Supposed to Be in a Recession By Now. What Happened?

      https://www.derekthompson.org/p/if-trumps-economic-ideas-are-so-terrible?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote last edited by
      #1048

      @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

      The US Economy Was Supposed to Be in a Recession By Now. What Happened?

      https://www.derekthompson.org/p/if-trumps-economic-ideas-are-so-terrible?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

      I have sincere doubts and disagreement with many of Trump’s policies. I am still a little amazed that things are still … not horrible yet.

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • AxtremusA Away
        AxtremusA Away
        Axtremus
        wrote last edited by
        #1049

        Look at that large downward revision of May and June's jobs data:

        IMG_7704.jpeg

        https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/07/31/business/tariffs-trump-trade?rsrc=ss&unlocked_article_code=1.a08.8SeH.ZQ6cd-Y_h1SI

        U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July, less than economists expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. The report on Friday also significantly revised down the data on hiring from May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market was under greater strain than initially believed. ...

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote last edited by jon-nyc
          #1050

          75% of the new jobs were in healthcare. That seems odd. Maybe that’s just a normal month in an industry that is growing as a percentage of gdp.

          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
          • 89th8 Offline
            89th8 Offline
            89th
            wrote last edited by
            #1051

            You’d think I’d be numb to this by now. This is insane, but also predictable.

            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/01/trump-fires-erika-mcentarfer-labor-statistics

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote last edited by
              #1052

              He has China envy. Markets are going to love this.

              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                #1053

                Another interesting thing about our growth is most of it is AI capex. The mag 7 are spending over a billion dollars a day on new data center infrastructure.

                That has exceeded consumer spending as a proportion of growth.

                Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • 89th8 Offline
                  89th8 Offline
                  89th
                  wrote last edited by
                  #1054

                  Indeed. I stumbled into investing in Palantir in Jan 2023. It’s up 2100% now so I just sold 1/3 of it. The bubble will burst one day, I think their PE ratio is like 650 or something.

                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                  • AxtremusA Away
                    AxtremusA Away
                    Axtremus
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1055

                    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-02/trump-s-next-job-selling-skeptical-americans-on-his-economy

                    USGDP2025.jpeg

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • 89th8 89th

                      Indeed. I stumbled into investing in Palantir in Jan 2023. It’s up 2100% now so I just sold 1/3 of it. The bubble will burst one day, I think their PE ratio is like 650 or something.

                      HoraceH Offline
                      HoraceH Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1056

                      @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                      Indeed. I stumbled into investing in Palantir in Jan 2023. It’s up 2100% now so I just sold 1/3 of it. The bubble will burst one day, I think their PE ratio is like 650 or something.

                      Nice. Purchasing individual stocks is an inferior strategy to a well balanced mix of funds, except when it’s not.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                        #1057

                        He’s doubling down on the 1500% cut in drug prices.

                        Someone asks Grok to explain:

                        A 1500% cut means reducing by 15 times the original price, e.g., a $100 drug becomes -$1400—you'd get paid to take it. Yes, that's a lot, but impossible without negative prices. Likely a misstatement; Trump's actual drug price reductions were more modest, around 1-5% annually.

                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote last edited by
                          #1058

                          While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                          The Brad

                          AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                            While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                            AxtremusA Away
                            AxtremusA Away
                            Axtremus
                            wrote last edited by
                            #1059

                            @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                            While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                            Besides, just think about the alternative.
                            Is it still better than the alternative?

                            LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                            • AxtremusA Axtremus

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                              While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                              Besides, just think about the alternative.
                              Is it still better than the alternative?

                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote last edited by
                              #1060

                              @Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

                              @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                              While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                              Besides, just think about the alternative.
                              Is it still better than the alternative?

                              Absofuckinglutely.

                              The Brad

                              Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                @Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                                Besides, just think about the alternative.
                                Is it still better than the alternative?

                                Absofuckinglutely.

                                Doctor PhibesD Online
                                Doctor PhibesD Online
                                Doctor Phibes
                                wrote last edited by
                                #1061

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                @Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                While I would expect one of the most prominent business people in the world, and in a business that is specifically tied into interest rates and percentages, I would expect better… But… When we are spending 1500% more on drugs than the Phillipines and 400% more than most European countries, I would expect that most of his voters get it…

                                Besides, just think about the alternative.
                                Is it still better than the alternative?

                                Absofuckinglutely.

                                I hate to be pernickity, but could you confirm that when you speak of "the alternative" you are referring to the election of President Kamala Harris, and not the earth being destroyed by a huge fucking meteor?

                                I was only joking

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #1062

                                  It’s always interesting to see how much these otherwise intelligent people are willing to debase themselves in front of their entire profession (and be complicit in harming the American economy) all in service to Donald Trump.

                                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                    75% of the new jobs were in healthcare. That seems odd. Maybe that’s just a normal month in an industry that is growing as a percentage of gdp.

                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #1063

                                    @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                                    75% of the new jobs were in healthcare. That seems odd. Maybe that’s just a normal month in an industry that is growing as a percentage of gdp.

                                    In fact if you take out healthcare and private education there was a net loss of 43k jobs.

                                    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                                      75% of the new jobs were in healthcare. That seems odd. Maybe that’s just a normal month in an industry that is growing as a percentage of gdp.

                                      In fact if you take out healthcare and private education there was a net loss of 43k jobs.

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #1064

                                      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                                      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                                      75% of the new jobs were in healthcare. That seems odd. Maybe that’s just a normal month in an industry that is growing as a percentage of gdp.

                                      In fact if you take out healthcare and private education there was a net loss of 43k jobs.

                                      Compare and contrast if you took out new government jobs from 21-25…

                                      The Brad

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                        #1065

                                        ChatGPT says of the 16.1 Million jobs created during the Biden administration, 1.4MM were in the government sector.

                                        Grok estimates 15.6MM total jobs, though it acknowledges (without prompting) that some sources have it at 16.1. Of its estimated 15.6 MM new jobs it puts 1.7MM as government jobs.

                                        So that’s an average of between 290k and 304k non-governmental jobs per month added during the prior administration.

                                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #1066

                                          But that’s sort of irrelevant.

                                          I think what we’re seeing here is that most industries aren’t making expansion plans in the face of economic uncertainty. That economic uncertainty, perhaps uniquely in our economic history, has a single author who just fired the head of his labor statistics department.

                                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                          Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
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