Trumpenomics
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Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
That would be the worst economic growth since the second quarter of 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and set the stage for the widely accepted technical definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
The National Bureau of Economic Research more broadly defines it as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Several other concerning signals have flashed regarding the health of the American economy, as consumer sentiment tumbled to a 15-month low, layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the stock market tanked, with the benchmark S&P 500 index falling 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.
Models tracking the probability of a U.S. recession have simultaneously shifted to indicate a higher probability of an economic pullback.
Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”
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Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
That would be the worst economic growth since the second quarter of 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and set the stage for the widely accepted technical definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
The National Bureau of Economic Research more broadly defines it as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Several other concerning signals have flashed regarding the health of the American economy, as consumer sentiment tumbled to a 15-month low, layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the stock market tanked, with the benchmark S&P 500 index falling 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.
Models tracking the probability of a U.S. recession have simultaneously shifted to indicate a higher probability of an economic pullback.
Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”
@taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:
Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.
Typical MAGAT projection. Accuse the other side of manipulating the numbers, then go manipulate the numbers.
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@taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:
Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic output will contract by an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter based on a series of economic data points.
They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.
Typical MAGAT projection. Accuse the other side of manipulating the numbers, then go manipulate the numbers.
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
They’re talking about changing the GDP calculation to hide that.
Yeah, I saw that. To me, you need a baseline to compare different periods and times. Changing the numbers to make yourself look better is not a good idea.
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At 9:30...
Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."
What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...
Link to video -
He either doesn’t understand them or he’s constantly lying about it. Unclear to me which is the more charitable. I think the bulk of the evidence points to the former. As the Cato guys point out, it may be the only policy position he’s been consistent about since the 80s.
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At 9:30...
Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."
What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...
Link to video@89th said in Trumpenomics:
At 9:30...
Worried about a recession? "We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, we're going to become so rich you can't even spend all the money."
What is he talking about? Does he understand how tariffs work? At 9:30...
Link to videoI wonder how many trillions have already been lost from the total market cap of US stocks.
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Interesting from Cato.
On shoring all Canadian aluminum would require "over 40 million megawatt-hours of electricity. This is nearly four and a half times the annual electricity production of the Hoover Dam, enough to power 460 data centers or the entire state of Nevada for a year"
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Premier of Ontario just announced 10 minutes ago that effective immediately Ontario will impose a 25% surcharge on its electricity exports into US until such time all threats of US tariffs against Canada are off the table. He also stated that if the US retaliates, he will increase the export surcharge or shut off all electrical power exports from Ontario into the US.
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I wonder what fraction of a percentage of the American economy these better trade agreements might even be worth. In the best case scenario that better trade agreements are the actual motivation here, rather than an attempt to remake an isolationist America, for which Maga does not have nearly enough runway, and so it would end up being a destructive and aborted project after the next election.
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Ok, I’m tired of winning.
Ok, I’m tired of winning.
No need to dog whistle the resident MAGAt troll. It will show up anyway barking the usual trite tidbit of vacuous snark.
