SCOTUS possibilities

[jon-nyc]

Alito retiring under Trump. >80%, most probably in the next two years so he’s assured of a friendly senate.

Thomas retiring, 0%.

Thomas dying in the saddle while Trump is president. Seems ghoulish to put a percentage on it but it ain’t small.

Sotomayor dying while Trump is president. Smaller than thomas, but a non-trivial chance.

No other retirements or deaths, barring freak accident or surprise ailment.

[George K]

Thomas is 2 years older than Alito (74), but I think he enjoys it more than Alito.

Sotomayor is 70, but she has some health issues, diabetes, right?

[89th]

I think it depends how the economy looks like 1-2 years. If it's getting better, that increases the likelihood of Vance taking over from 2029-2033, which may slow any conservative retirements. I'd imagine Sotomayor will hold on until death similar to RGB so as not to give Trump a slot.

[Jolly]

@89th said in SCOTUS possibilities:

I think it depends how the economy looks like 1-2 years. If it's getting better, that increases the likelihood of Vance taking over from 2029-2033, which may slow any conservative retirements. I'd imagine Sotomayor will hold on until death similar to RGB so as not to give Trump a slot.

Diabetic.