SCOTUS possibilities
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Alito retiring under Trump. >80%, most probably in the next two years so he’s assured of a friendly senate.
Thomas retiring, 0%.
Thomas dying in the saddle while Trump is president. Seems ghoulish to put a percentage on it but it ain’t small.
Sotomayor dying while Trump is president. Smaller than thomas, but a non-trivial chance.
No other retirements or deaths, barring freak accident or surprise ailment.
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I think it depends how the economy looks like 1-2 years. If it's getting better, that increases the likelihood of Vance taking over from 2029-2033, which may slow any conservative retirements. I'd imagine Sotomayor will hold on until death similar to RGB so as not to give Trump a slot.
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I think it depends how the economy looks like 1-2 years. If it's getting better, that increases the likelihood of Vance taking over from 2029-2033, which may slow any conservative retirements. I'd imagine Sotomayor will hold on until death similar to RGB so as not to give Trump a slot.
@89th said in SCOTUS possibilities:
I think it depends how the economy looks like 1-2 years. If it's getting better, that increases the likelihood of Vance taking over from 2029-2033, which may slow any conservative retirements. I'd imagine Sotomayor will hold on until death similar to RGB so as not to give Trump a slot.
Diabetic.
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