Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?
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@Horace said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
Of more value in terms of insights were my points about what overlapping distributions with “large statistically meaningful differences” actually look like (generally not impressive),
Again, until your lying eyes actually watch footage of a Trump rally.
@jon-nyc said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
@Horace said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
Of more value in terms of insights were my points about what overlapping distributions with “large statistically meaningful differences” actually look like (generally not impressive),
Again, until your lying eyes actually watch footage of a Trump rally.
There's no way that's the first Trump rally footage you've seen. It's special this time precisely because it confirms a cherished belief you have. Here's how you'd test it. Develop specific, measurable predictions, that you'll be able to test against other Trump rallies. Go find footage of other Trump rallies, at random. Watch them, and test your prediction against reality.
Science is not easy, but this is apparently an important conclusion to you, so you should do the work.
After the work is done, we can begin wondering whether rallies are a representative sample of Trump voters. Whether this matters, will depend on how you precisely formulate your predictions and conclusions. That is up to you, and I would never presume to guess at your exact wording.
As I recall, the firefighter who got murdered at Trump's rally in PA, was a fit guy. But that's just anecdata. Ashley Babbitt was fit, too. And the shaman.
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Just curious, when you find a video from a rally two weeks ago and tell me to fast forward to 10:20, who’s case do you think you’re making?
@jon-nyc said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
Just curious, when you find a video from a rally two weeks ago and tell me to fast forward to 10:20, who’s case do you think you’re making?
Jon, only one of us is taking this seriously. You don't have a "case", you have adolescent snickering and sneering. I gave you the video because it's of a very fat person breaking a chair at a Trump (well, Vance) town hall, and I thought you would enjoy it.
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But anyway look at the fucking video. Hundreds and hundreds of people and not one of them is fit. Literally none.
That’s not a coincidence.
@jon-nyc said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
But anyway look at the fucking video. Hundreds and hundreds of people and not one of them is fit. Literally none.
That’s not a coincidence.
Trump is obese, which is why his voters can relate to him. Simple enough.
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@Horace said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
There might be a chance that a steady diet of hate-messaging against him has warped your view, if you find him to be the most dislikable person on the planet.
There's only one source of information that counts for me: What Trump himself does and says.
For me, he's not a devil, or a fascist, or evil. Maybe he is even the better choice compared to Harris. But he's the opposite of a likeable person. The constant self-aggrandizing alone would make me want to punch him if I'd be at the same party.
@Klaus said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
@Horace said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
There might be a chance that a steady diet of hate-messaging against him has warped your view, if you find him to be the most dislikable person on the planet.
There's only one source of information that counts for me: What Trump himself does and says.
For me, he's not a devil, or a fascist, or evil. Maybe he is even the better choice compared to Harris. But he's the opposite of a likeable person. The constant self-aggrandizing alone would make me want to punch him if I'd be at the same party.
From a truly objection point of view, yes. He insults, brags, has very long list of people who worked for him and denounced him after doing so, a wife who doesn't like him, a very long list of business failures, a growing list of political losses, and a very short...... rather, fragile ego. Very punchable. On paper, he's a 3rd grader bully with a losing track record.
But, why people like him? Similar to what others have said here... people have been waiting years or decades for a candidate to come in and talk like a normal person, an outsider (to DC) that can change things, who can make jokes, who can shut down a reporter off script. Add in a very strong and silent majority (or at least, plurality) in this country who has watched their side be insulted and overlooked by politicians and the media for years.... Trump was just the spark for all of that kindling.
The fact that he's like going to win the election again, despite being guilty of fraud (owing a half billion dollars, guilty of 34 felonies, impeached twice, lost the popular vote twice, inspired a riot to stop the last election... it's remarkable how important a person's personality is to the political system.
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@Klaus said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
@Horace said in Did anybody see Jon in line yesterday?:
There might be a chance that a steady diet of hate-messaging against him has warped your view, if you find him to be the most dislikable person on the planet.
There's only one source of information that counts for me: What Trump himself does and says.
For me, he's not a devil, or a fascist, or evil. Maybe he is even the better choice compared to Harris. But he's the opposite of a likeable person. The constant self-aggrandizing alone would make me want to punch him if I'd be at the same party.
From a truly objection point of view, yes. He insults, brags, has very long list of people who worked for him and denounced him after doing so, a wife who doesn't like him, a very long list of business failures, a growing list of political losses, and a very short...... rather, fragile ego. Very punchable. On paper, he's a 3rd grader bully with a losing track record.
But, why people like him? Similar to what others have said here... people have been waiting years or decades for a candidate to come in and talk like a normal person, an outsider (to DC) that can change things, who can make jokes, who can shut down a reporter off script. Add in a very strong and silent majority (or at least, plurality) in this country who has watched their side be insulted and overlooked by politicians and the media for years.... Trump was just the spark for all of that kindling.
The fact that he's like going to win the election again, despite being guilty of fraud (owing a half billion dollars, guilty of 34 felonies, impeached twice, lost the popular vote twice, inspired a riot to stop the last election... it's remarkable how important a person's personality is to the political system.
@89th Good post
I will add that President Trump is, like most nationalist populists, good at shifting blame to others, and having people believe it. Most politicians try to do this, but good populists are able to convince people better than others.
