It’s starting
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
Such a good quality in a leader.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
Well, today we'll see...
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
Today? Damn you’re optimistic.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:53 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:56 last edited by
My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.
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Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:17 last edited by Jolly 11 May 2024, 12:18@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.
But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:58 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of unmarried women voters due to Dobbs.
FIFYNNTTM
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 13:54 last edited by
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.
But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.
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My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 16:04 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.
We shall see. I know there’s a lot more “garbage” in PA than there are Puerto Ricans.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 18:34 last edited by
So here’s Nate’s final numbers and it’s a little confusing. They ran the model 80K times and Kamala won 40,012 of them. He points out that means nothing. He could have run it another 80K times and Trump would have winning… no statistical difference between 40,012 and 39,988…
But the weird thing is that looking at state by state modeling, it has Trump winning PA and the Sunbelt. Game over..
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 20:56 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 22:59 last edited by
And they all came back positive.
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Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
wrote on 6 Nov 2024, 02:24 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
The largest Puerto Rican community in the continental US. Trump flipped it.
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wrote on 6 Nov 2024, 02:29 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Jun 2024, 02:30
So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.
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So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.
wrote on 6 Nov 2024, 02:42 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.
Maybe.
Initial numbers show her doing better in some places, worse in others
Maybe we'll wind up 279-279.
Which is fine by me.
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wrote on 6 Nov 2024, 02:45 last edited by
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wrote on 6 Nov 2024, 02:56 last edited by
Betting markets are now 80% for Trump winning the electoral college. Started the night in the high 50s.
