It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.

[Jolly]

Give the Word Salad Queen time.

[Aqua Letifer]

I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

Harris’ is +0.3

She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.

She ought to be better than than that.

[taiwan_girl]

@Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:

I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.

Aqua says the truth.

[LuFins Dad]

Leveled off, some signs it will start contracting again over the next few days…

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

[LuFins Dad]

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

[Axtremus]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

Probably just changing weights as polls age.

[Axtremus]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

[LuFins Dad]

@Axtremus said in It’s starting:

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

Yes.

[Horace]

Ax can't imagine why Silver would want to post a link to that.

Ax's imagination should be studied by scientists.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

So Trump is performing 25% better than he was in 2016 and 300% better than he did in 2020? I’ll take it.

[jon-nyc]

Maybe the model is performing better.

[LuFins Dad]

Yeah, hang your coat on that peg.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Still well above the 2016/20 levels… Little surprised she got a small uptick. Was there a poll release that I missed?

[jon-nyc]

Not sure, could be state level polls, could also be polls aging out of the model.