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The New Coffee Room

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  3. The Racial Realignment

The Racial Realignment

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  • George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    John Burn-Murdoch - the guy who did all that COVID analysis back in early 2020...

    Read the (long) thread:

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1767198788689465639.html

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Offline
      MikM Offline
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      Interesting

      "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

      1 Reply Last reply
      • HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        There is a great deal of explanatory power in the idea that the mainstream conservative institutionalists are Democrats, and the marginalized counter culture feels less affiliated with them. In a two party system, there’s only one other place to go.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • Doctor PhibesD Online
          Doctor PhibesD Online
          Doctor Phibes
          wrote on last edited by Doctor Phibes
          #4

          This is how politics works. People drift away from their traditional party as they no longer fit in, which then has to re-align itself in order to win their votes back, or potentially find a different bunch of suckers, sorry voters.

          A similar thing happened in the UK with the traditionally working class north of England going over to the Tories because of Brexit, but also because of the drift into lefty stupidity of the Corbynistas.

          The colours are reversed in the UK from how it is in the US, but it was said that the red wall turned blue in 2019. Keir Starmer has gone some way to bring Labour back to center-left positions. Some would even say conservative positions.

          I was only joking

          1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            The funny part about this is that progressive whites base much of their political identity on being aligned with the oppressed classes. When that veneer is removed, they'll have to admit through deed if not word that they have really just been mainstream opportunist cultural conservatives all along. It's also amusing watching them not hazard a guess as to why minorities might be leaving their party. The only theory they've ever had about the other party is that it's some combination of stupid and racist, and they can't very well say that about their fetishized oppressed classes.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • JollyJ Offline
              JollyJ Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              Remember what I said about the GOP?

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              HoraceH George KG 2 Replies Last reply
              • JollyJ Jolly

                Remember what I said about the GOP?

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                @Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

                Remember what I said about the GOP?

                Something about a big umbrella?

                Education is extremely important.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Jolly

                  Remember what I said about the GOP?

                  George KG Offline
                  George KG Offline
                  George K
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  @Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

                  Remember what I said about the GOP?

                  Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                  LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                  • George KG George K

                    @Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

                    Remember what I said about the GOP?

                    Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    @George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

                    @Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

                    Remember what I said about the GOP?

                    Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

                    You guys (and the author) are putting too much weight into the African American vote and not enough on Hispanic and Asian vote.

                    The Brad

                    George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                      @George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

                      @Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

                      Remember what I said about the GOP?

                      Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

                      You guys (and the author) are putting too much weight into the African American vote and not enough on Hispanic and Asian vote.

                      George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      @LuFins-Dad said in The Racial Realignment:

                      You guys (and the author) are putting too much weight into the African American vote and not enough on Hispanic and Asian vote.

                      I didn't intend to. The Latino vote has taken a similar drop to the Black vote since 2000.

                      Black: 80% -> 65%
                      Latino: 60% -> 45%

                      Going back to 1960, the differences are similar, but perhaps bigger for Latino and "other non-white".

                      I found the age disparity also interesting.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                        #11

                        No doubt we’ve seen a shift, especially among non-white men, but boy are those data-free arrows from 20-24 doing a lot of work for his visual.

                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #12

                          As is his choice of 1964 as a starting point, when the man who passed the Civil Rights Act was running.

                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            No doubt we’ve seen a shift, especially among non-white men, but boy are those data-free arrows from 20-24 doing a lot of work for his visual.

                            George KG Offline
                            George KG Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #13

                            @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                            data-free arrows

                            At the bottom of the pitchers:

                            Source: FT analysis of American National Election Studies, Cooperative Election Study and New York Times / Siena College poll (2024)

                            Sources: Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn), FT analysis of recent polls

                            Source: FT analysis of Cooperative Election Study. Based on Party of the People (Ruffini, 2023)

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              As is his choice of 1964 as a starting point, when the man who passed the Civil Rights Act was running.

                              George KG Offline
                              George KG Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on last edited by George K
                              #14

                              @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                              the man who passed the Civil Rights Act was running

                              Are you really so convinced that LBJ passed the Civil Rights Act out of a sense of justice?

                              Knowing what I've read about him, I would suspect something more ... practical.

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                #15

                                What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive? All I said was that he passed the act, which he clearly did.

                                Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                  What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive? All I said was that he passed the act, which he clearly did.

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #16

                                  @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                                  What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive?

                                  WRT to Burn-Murdoch? Nothing.

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • George KG Offline
                                    George KG Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #17

                                    But...as long as you bring up motive.

                                    With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

                                    We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

                                    What changed?

                                    Why?

                                    Cui bono?

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • George KG George K

                                      @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                                      What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive?

                                      WRT to Burn-Murdoch? Nothing.

                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #18

                                      @George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

                                      @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                                      What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive?

                                      WRT to Burn-Murdoch? Nothing.

                                      No, with respect to Johnson’s pushing of the Civil Rights Act.

                                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • George KG George K

                                        But...as long as you bring up motive.

                                        With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

                                        We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

                                        What changed?

                                        Why?

                                        Cui bono?

                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                        #19

                                        @George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

                                        But...as long as you bring up motive.

                                        With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

                                        We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

                                        What changed?

                                        Why?

                                        Cui bono?

                                        Cui bono?

                                        If you believe the NYT/Sienna poll, the GOP. It has blacks going dem by 44 points and Hispanics leaning republican.

                                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                          @George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

                                          But...as long as you bring up motive.

                                          With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

                                          We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

                                          What changed?

                                          Why?

                                          Cui bono?

                                          Cui bono?

                                          If you believe the NYT/Sienna poll, the GOP. It has blacks going dem by 44 points and Hispanics leaning republican.

                                          George KG Offline
                                          George KG Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #20

                                          @jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

                                          Cui bono?

                                          If you believe the NYT/Sienna poll, the GOP. It has blacks going dem by 44 points and Hispanics leaning republican.

                                          Yeah, I get that. Does that poll have anything to do with polling the "migrants?"

                                          And the black going GOP is historically high.

                                          I don't know.

                                          Purely anecdotal, most Hispanics I spoke, a long time ago, were opposed tl the illegals getting in. I don't think their views have changed.

                                          Do you think that allowing all these people, the number of which exceeds the population of some states, is a cynical attempt at solidifying the "base?"

                                          And related, do you think it might backfire?

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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