The Racial Realignment

[Doctor Phibes]

This is how politics works. People drift away from their traditional party as they no longer fit in, which then has to re-align itself in order to win their votes back, or potentially find a different bunch of suckers, sorry voters.

A similar thing happened in the UK with the traditionally working class north of England going over to the Tories because of Brexit, but also because of the drift into lefty stupidity of the Corbynistas.

The colours are reversed in the UK from how it is in the US, but it was said that the red wall turned blue in 2019. Keir Starmer has gone some way to bring Labour back to center-left positions. Some would even say conservative positions.

[Horace]

The funny part about this is that progressive whites base much of their political identity on being aligned with the oppressed classes. When that veneer is removed, they'll have to admit through deed if not word that they have really just been mainstream opportunist cultural conservatives all along. It's also amusing watching them not hazard a guess as to why minorities might be leaving their party. The only theory they've ever had about the other party is that it's some combination of stupid and racist, and they can't very well say that about their fetishized oppressed classes.

[Jolly]

Remember what I said about the GOP?

[Horace]

@Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

Remember what I said about the GOP?

Something about a big umbrella?

[George K]

@Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

Remember what I said about the GOP?

Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

@Jolly said in The Racial Realignment:

Remember what I said about the GOP?

Remember what LBJ allegedly said about the Democrats? He was off by about 130 years.

You guys (and the author) are putting too much weight into the African American vote and not enough on Hispanic and Asian vote.

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in The Racial Realignment:

You guys (and the author) are putting too much weight into the African American vote and not enough on Hispanic and Asian vote.

I didn't intend to. The Latino vote has taken a similar drop to the Black vote since 2000.

Black: 80% -> 65%
Latino: 60% -> 45%

Going back to 1960, the differences are similar, but perhaps bigger for Latino and "other non-white".

I found the age disparity also interesting.

[jon-nyc]

No doubt we’ve seen a shift, especially among non-white men, but boy are those data-free arrows from 20-24 doing a lot of work for his visual.

[jon-nyc]

As is his choice of 1964 as a starting point, when the man who passed the Civil Rights Act was running.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

data-free arrows

At the bottom of the pitchers:

Source: FT analysis of American National Election Studies, Cooperative Election Study and New York Times / Siena College poll (2024)

Sources: Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn), FT analysis of recent polls

Source: FT analysis of Cooperative Election Study. Based on Party of the People (Ruffini, 2023)

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

the man who passed the Civil Rights Act was running

Are you really so convinced that LBJ passed the Civil Rights Act out of a sense of justice?

Knowing what I've read about him, I would suspect something more ... practical.

[jon-nyc]

What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive? All I said was that he passed the act, which he clearly did.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive?

WRT to Burn-Murdoch? Nothing.

[George K]

But...as long as you bring up motive.

With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

What changed?

Why?

Cui bono?

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

@jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

What gave you the impression that I was opining on motive?

WRT to Burn-Murdoch? Nothing.

No, with respect to Johnson’s pushing of the Civil Rights Act.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in The Racial Realignment:

But...as long as you bring up motive.

With the mess at the border(s), does anyone believe that this is an accident? That this is a consequence of humanitarian goals?

We have decades of the likes of Biden, Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi decrying the influx of illegals into the US.

What changed?

Why?

Cui bono?

Cui bono?

If you believe the NYT/Sienna poll, the GOP. It has blacks going dem by 44 points and Hispanics leaning republican.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in The Racial Realignment:

Cui bono?

If you believe the NYT/Sienna poll, the GOP. It has blacks going dem by 44 points and Hispanics leaning republican.

Yeah, I get that. Does that poll have anything to do with polling the "migrants?"

And the black going GOP is historically high.

I don't know.

Purely anecdotal, most Hispanics I spoke, a long time ago, were opposed tl the illegals getting in. I don't think their views have changed.

Do you think that allowing all these people, the number of which exceeds the population of some states, is a cynical attempt at solidifying the "base?"

And related, do you think it might backfire?

[Jolly]

Pure power politics.

LBJ smiled.