2024 Election Predictions
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@89th said in 2024 Election Predictions:
I thought about Arizona but Lake’s loss in 2022 doesn’t bode well IMO.
I agree. From what I have read (which I will admit is not a whole lot), the whole Arizona republicans are in a mess.
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Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election - and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point.
Thus far, Biden holds five of the "keys," while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch. That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman teaches the "keys" are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
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Another prediction. Biden will not participate in Presidential debates. Bold? But man... he would be CLOBBERED if he stood up there and had to recall facts.
President Biden, during interviews with the special counsel investigating his handling of classified documents, had trouble recalling the years he served as vice president. He could not pinpoint, even within several years, when his son Beau had died. His memory about a crucial debate on troop levels in Afghanistan was hazy.
The first day of questioning, at the White House in early October, Biden could not recall when his vice-presidential term had ended. “If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked, apparently not recalling that he left office in January 2017.
The next day, as the interviews continued, he could not remember when his term began, saying, “In 2009, am I still vice president?”
Special counsel Robert K. Hur’s report, while concluding that criminal charges were not merited for Biden’s careless handling of classified documents, painted a devastating portrait of an 81-year-old president whose age has become a central issue in his reelection campaign, saying his memory was “significantly limited” and that he had “limited precision and recall.”
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He’s got nothing to gain in debating Trump and everything to lose. I’ll agree with that prediction.
At least we won’t have to hear him call Trump a “clown” to his face.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Biden won’t be running. I always thought it would be a switch at the convention, but now I don’t even think it gets that far. It’s probably too late to primary him on Super Tuesday, though. So I think we will go into the convention knowing it will be brokered.
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I think Biden will still run unless he has a medical event. I seem to remember a number of people here were saying he would be replaced in his first term, too.
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Mr. Biden is finished, done, washed up.
The only question is whether there is enough time left to replace him. Or does Ms. Harris step into the top spot?
If it is Ms. Harris, and we get to know her a little better, she has no hope.
But whoever ends up on the ballot, the winner, from either party, will be the one who says the least. This puts Mr. Trump at a disadvantage.
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He’s got nothing to gain in debating Trump and everything to lose. I’ll agree with that prediction.
At least we won’t have to hear him call Trump a “clown” to his face.
@George-K said in 2024 Election Predictions:
He’s got nothing to gain in debating Trump and everything to lose. I’ll agree with that prediction.
At least we won’t have to hear him call Trump a “clown” to his face.
Agree also. And because President Trump was not willing to debate during the primary, he has a "plausible" excuse for not doing it.
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There are WAY too many unknowns to make a prediction. Who comes out as the D nominee? What kind of deals are cut? How does the base respond? Then there’s the big question, Manchin. If Manchin runs, I don’t think he just plays spoiler. I think he takes electoral votes. Which raises big questions…
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“If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked,
I don’t think that’s as big a deal as people are making it out to be. That happens to me all the time. I might ask out loud what year I moved to westchester or left credit Suisse or whatever.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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Every candidate of the past couple of decades other than the current 2, would win the upcoming election - Romney, Clinton, GWB, Gore, Obama. It's very disheartening to consider given the challenges the nation faces at this point in time. While Biden would get clobbered in a debate, both he and his nemesis have misplaced confidence in their cognitive abilities. I suspect Biden would relish the chance to lock horns with Trump.
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“If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked,
I don’t think that’s as big a deal as people are making it out to be. That happens to me all the time. I might ask out loud what year I moved to westchester or left credit Suisse or whatever.
@jon-nyc said in 2024 Election Predictions:
“If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked,
I don’t think that’s as big a deal as people are making it out to be. That happens to me all the time. I might ask out loud what year I moved to westchester or left credit Suisse or whatever.
I think you'd probably remember when you were Vice President of the United States, though.
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@jon-nyc said in 2024 Election Predictions:
“If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked,
I don’t think that’s as big a deal as people are making it out to be. That happens to me all the time. I might ask out loud what year I moved to westchester or left credit Suisse or whatever.
I think you'd probably remember when you were Vice President of the United States, though.
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Every candidate of the past couple of decades other than the current 2, would win the upcoming election - Romney, Clinton, GWB, Gore, Obama. It's very disheartening to consider given the challenges the nation faces at this point in time. While Biden would get clobbered in a debate, both he and his nemesis have misplaced confidence in their cognitive abilities. I suspect Biden would relish the chance to lock horns with Trump.
@kluurs said in 2024 Election Predictions:
Every candidate of the past couple of decades other than the current 2, would win the upcoming election - Romney, Clinton, GWB, Gore, Obama. It's very disheartening to consider given the challenges the nation faces at this point in time. While Biden would get clobbered in a debate, both he and his nemesis have misplaced confidence in their cognitive abilities. I suspect Biden would relish the chance to lock horns with Trump.
I disagree.
Never forget, Trump is a movement, not a traditional candidate.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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@kluurs said in 2024 Election Predictions:
Every candidate of the past couple of decades other than the current 2, would win the upcoming election - Romney, Clinton, GWB, Gore, Obama. It's very disheartening to consider given the challenges the nation faces at this point in time. While Biden would get clobbered in a debate, both he and his nemesis have misplaced confidence in their cognitive abilities. I suspect Biden would relish the chance to lock horns with Trump.
I disagree.
Never forget, Trump is a movement, not a traditional candidate.
@Jolly said in 2024 Election Predictions:
Never forget, Trump is a movement
What are you going to do when he finally passes?
I was only joking
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There are 2 large groups, those who like Mr. Trump and those who hate him and insult him.
There are a few that hang around the middle in a smaller group.
To me the insults are remarkable, they just never stop. He might deserve some of it, but the childish nature of it is curious. And the opposition rarely says they hate some policy or other, it is just childish insults.
I can't think of many other politicians who have been treated like this. AOC, Tiny Tim or Pat Paulsen maybe.
