Bidenomics At Work

[taiwan_girl]

But would not the Biden administration want to have lower jobs reported rather than higher jobs numbers? With increased jobs, then there is a higher chance that the US interest rates will continue to be raised. I would think that the Biden administration would want the rates to be decreased.

[jon-nyc]

The Biden administration BLS has revised down previously reported jobs data for nearly every month this year, resulting in a huge disparity from the originally advertised numbers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)..

The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

Which raises the question: Has BLS revised numbers in the past, and if so, how often?

[Axtremus]

@George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

@jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

Which raises the question: Has BLS revised numbers in the past, and if so, how often?

Yes, the BLS has been making revisions for a very long time (my memory of that goes as far back to when Clinton was President, won't surprise me if that practice stretches back even further). It's a publicly documented practice, see https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm , look for the section under "Monthly Revisions."

Srsly, one may quibble over specific methods, but having a revision practice in place is the right thing to do to balance "timelines" and "accuracy." The BLS has that and discloses it; has been that way for a very long time.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

@jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

The BLS have their methods, administrations come and go.

Which raises the question: Has BLS revised numbers in the past, and if so, how often?

I think they literally always revise them There are things that are estimated in the first pass that can be measured in the second.

[Jolly]

Then the press does the public a mighty disservice by acting as the propaganda arm for the administration.

[jon-nyc]

There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

Therefore, lies are ok?

[jon-nyc]

First draft estimates using long standing published methodology is hardly a ‘lie’.

[Jolly]

They are not presented as first drafts. They are presented in MSM as hard numbers and rarely are the revisions reported as news, except as a blurb on page 15.

Intentional obfuscation is a lie.

[jon-nyc]

Fun to see an Always Trumper needing a fainting couch to deal with the big lie of BLS statistics.

[Jolly]

I didn't mention Trump. Other than a link, I haven't mentioned Biden in the link about job numbers.

The Bible sez the wicked flee, when no man pursueth...

Correction: I did mention The Resident on 8/28/2023 in this thread.

[jon-nyc]

[Axtremus]

Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

[Jolly]

@Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:

Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

You don't make much money preaching doom and gloom in the financial sector. At least for most investments.

[Axtremus]

@Jolly , that may be true, but the virtually all the individual inputs that are aggregated into the consensus come from the financial sector. So that doesn’t explain why Goldman Sachs appear to be more optimistic that the rest of the financial sector.

[George K]

Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

[LuFins Dad]

[George K]

Why Americans Dislike the Economy

“Why are the vibes so bad?” ask legions of commentators, noting the disconnect between polling on the economy and top-level economic indicators. The unemployment rate is within spitting distance of 60-year lows, and measured inflation has dropped from a punishingly high 9 percent rate to a lower, though still too high, 3.2 percent.

And yet, citizens are unhappy with the economy. According to a New York Times–Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times–Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy.

To reconcile voters’ discontent with the economic data, we shouldn’t consider the top-level employment and inflation indicators separately. Instead, we should combine them—and when we do, we observe workers’ real (that is, after inflation) wages have declined significantly in recent years.

Some commentators argue that real wages are rising, but these claims are based on the popular average hourly earnings measure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics. Average hourly earnings is a less useful indicator now because of large workforce-composition changes. During the pandemic, the economy shed large numbers of low-paying service jobs (for instance, in leisure and hospitality), which pushed the average wage in the economy higher. The average moved up because low-paying jobs dropped from BLS’s sample, not because individuals experienced strong wage growth. The effect reversed as the economy began adding those low-paying service jobs back, which pushed average hourly earnings down. Those composition effects linger today, as the economy is still short 560,000 leisure and hospitality jobs (adjusting for labor-force growth), relative to pre-pandemic levels, due largely to firms’ difficulty finding workers.

[taiwan_girl]

I think it is because the price changes were somewhat "drastic" compared to previously, when the inflation rate was low for an extended period of time. The "old" prices are still fresh in peoples minds.