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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Bidenomics At Work

Bidenomics At Work

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

    In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

    In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

    So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

    JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #82

    @jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:

    There have been 7 downward revisions and 1 upward revisions through August.

    In 2022 there were 7 upward revisions and 5 down.

    In 2021 there were 11 upward revisions and 1 downwards.

    So the majority of months since his inauguration the BLS underestimated the sheer awesomeness of Bidenomics.

    Therefore, lies are ok?

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #83

      First draft estimates using long standing published methodology is hardly a ‘lie’.

      You were warned.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Offline
        JollyJ Offline
        Jolly
        wrote on last edited by
        #84

        They are not presented as first drafts. They are presented in MSM as hard numbers and rarely are the revisions reported as news, except as a blurb on page 15.

        Intentional obfuscation is a lie.

        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
          #85

          Fun to see an Always Trumper needing a fainting couch to deal with the big lie of BLS statistics.

          You were warned.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • JollyJ Offline
            JollyJ Offline
            Jolly
            wrote on last edited by Jolly
            #86

            I didn't mention Trump. Other than a link, I haven't mentioned Biden in the link about job numbers.

            The Bible sez the wicked flee, when no man pursueth...

            Correction: I did mention The Resident on 8/28/2023 in this thread.

            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #87

              You were warned.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • AxtremusA Offline
                AxtremusA Offline
                Axtremus
                wrote on last edited by
                #88

                Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • AxtremusA Axtremus

                  Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                  What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                  Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                  JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #89

                  @Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:

                  Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                  What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                  Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                  You don't make much money preaching doom and gloom in the financial sector. At least for most investments.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Jolly

                    @Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:

                    Goldman Sachs seems to be more optimistic than the concensus most of the time.
                    What is GS seeing that the rest are not?
                    Or is GS trying to mislead everyone else?

                    You don't make much money preaching doom and gloom in the financial sector. At least for most investments.

                    AxtremusA Offline
                    AxtremusA Offline
                    Axtremus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #90

                    @Jolly , that may be true, but the virtually all the individual inputs that are aggregated into the consensus come from the financial sector. So that doesn’t explain why Goldman Sachs appear to be more optimistic that the rest of the financial sector.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #91

                      Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG George K

                        Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #92

                        @George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

                        Yeah, the economy sucks because MAGA extremists.

                        Yeah, they’ll finish the job…

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • George KG Offline
                          George KG Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #93

                          Why Americans Dislike the Economy

                          “Why are the vibes so bad?” ask legions of commentators, noting the disconnect between polling on the economy and top-level economic indicators. The unemployment rate is within spitting distance of 60-year lows, and measured inflation has dropped from a punishingly high 9 percent rate to a lower, though still too high, 3.2 percent.

                          And yet, citizens are unhappy with the economy. According to a New York Times–Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times–Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy.

                          To reconcile voters’ discontent with the economic data, we shouldn’t consider the top-level employment and inflation indicators separately. Instead, we should combine them—and when we do, we observe workers’ real (that is, after inflation) wages have declined significantly in recent years.

                          Some commentators argue that real wages are rising, but these claims are based on the popular average hourly earnings measure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics. Average hourly earnings is a less useful indicator now because of large workforce-composition changes. During the pandemic, the economy shed large numbers of low-paying service jobs (for instance, in leisure and hospitality), which pushed the average wage in the economy higher. The average moved up because low-paying jobs dropped from BLS’s sample, not because individuals experienced strong wage growth. The effect reversed as the economy began adding those low-paying service jobs back, which pushed average hourly earnings down. Those composition effects linger today, as the economy is still short 560,000 leisure and hospitality jobs (adjusting for labor-force growth), relative to pre-pandemic levels, due largely to firms’ difficulty finding workers.

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                          • taiwan_girlT Offline
                            taiwan_girlT Offline
                            taiwan_girl
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #94

                            I think it is because the price changes were somewhat "drastic" compared to previously, when the inflation rate was low for an extended period of time. The "old" prices are still fresh in peoples minds.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Offline
                              JollyJ Offline
                              Jolly
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #95

                              People remember 2018 and 2019. They understand how things changed with COVID and the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                              And they understand that the rosy scenario the Biden Administration is painting is not entirely true. Hospitality jobs have not recovered. Many people can no longer afford a car. Many people cannot afford food. As temporary Medicaid rolls are scaled back, many can no longer afford health insurance.

                              The people know.

                              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                              Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                              • MikM Away
                                MikM Away
                                Mik
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #96

                                Not to mention the drastic increase in rents most places. If a kid starting out would spend the long-standard 25% on housing they'd be living in a tent. It's much closer to, and sometimes above, 50%. Buying property is nearly impossible.

                                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Jolly

                                  People remember 2018 and 2019. They understand how things changed with COVID and the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                  And they understand that the rosy scenario the Biden Administration is painting is not entirely true. Hospitality jobs have not recovered. Many people can no longer afford a car. Many people cannot afford food. As temporary Medicaid rolls are scaled back, many can no longer afford health insurance.

                                  The people know.

                                  Doctor PhibesD Online
                                  Doctor PhibesD Online
                                  Doctor Phibes
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #97

                                  @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                  the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                  That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                  I was only joking

                                  JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                                    @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                    the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                    That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #98

                                    @Doctor-Phibes said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                    @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                    the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                    That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                    That's Ax reasoning. Look at a 90 day chart and then extrapolate to reach whatever conclusion is desired.

                                    People look back at pre-COVID and then they look at prices now. Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    George KG Doctor PhibesD 2 Replies Last reply
                                    • JollyJ Jolly

                                      @Doctor-Phibes said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                      @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                      the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                      That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                      That's Ax reasoning. Look at a 90 day chart and then extrapolate to reach whatever conclusion is desired.

                                      People look back at pre-COVID and then they look at prices now. Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                      George KG Offline
                                      George KG Offline
                                      George K
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #99

                                      @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                      Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                      If you look at inflation rates worldwide, you'll see that they pretty much followed the US.

                                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • George KG George K

                                        Why Americans Dislike the Economy

                                        “Why are the vibes so bad?” ask legions of commentators, noting the disconnect between polling on the economy and top-level economic indicators. The unemployment rate is within spitting distance of 60-year lows, and measured inflation has dropped from a punishingly high 9 percent rate to a lower, though still too high, 3.2 percent.

                                        And yet, citizens are unhappy with the economy. According to a New York Times–Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times–Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy.

                                        To reconcile voters’ discontent with the economic data, we shouldn’t consider the top-level employment and inflation indicators separately. Instead, we should combine them—and when we do, we observe workers’ real (that is, after inflation) wages have declined significantly in recent years.

                                        Some commentators argue that real wages are rising, but these claims are based on the popular average hourly earnings measure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics. Average hourly earnings is a less useful indicator now because of large workforce-composition changes. During the pandemic, the economy shed large numbers of low-paying service jobs (for instance, in leisure and hospitality), which pushed the average wage in the economy higher. The average moved up because low-paying jobs dropped from BLS’s sample, not because individuals experienced strong wage growth. The effect reversed as the economy began adding those low-paying service jobs back, which pushed average hourly earnings down. Those composition effects linger today, as the economy is still short 560,000 leisure and hospitality jobs (adjusting for labor-force growth), relative to pre-pandemic levels, due largely to firms’ difficulty finding workers.

                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #100

                                        @George-K said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                        Why Americans Dislike the Economy

                                        “Why are the vibes so bad?” ask legions of commentators, noting the disconnect between polling on the economy and top-level economic indicators. The unemployment rate is within spitting distance of 60-year lows, and measured inflation has dropped from a punishingly high 9 percent rate to a lower, though still too high, 3.2 percent.

                                        And yet, citizens are unhappy with the economy. According to a New York Times–Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times–Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy.

                                        To reconcile voters’ discontent with the economic data, we shouldn’t consider the top-level employment and inflation indicators separately. Instead, we should combine them—and when we do, we observe workers’ real (that is, after inflation) wages have declined significantly in recent years.

                                        Some commentators argue that real wages are rising, but these claims are based on the popular average hourly earnings measure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics. Average hourly earnings is a less useful indicator now because of large workforce-composition changes. During the pandemic, the economy shed large numbers of low-paying service jobs (for instance, in leisure and hospitality), which pushed the average wage in the economy higher. The average moved up because low-paying jobs dropped from BLS’s sample, not because individuals experienced strong wage growth. The effect reversed as the economy began adding those low-paying service jobs back, which pushed average hourly earnings down. Those composition effects linger today, as the economy is still short 560,000 leisure and hospitality jobs (adjusting for labor-force growth), relative to pre-pandemic levels, due largely to firms’ difficulty finding workers.

                                        I think they are still missing the most obvious reasons, housing first and foremost.

                                        Home sales are down between 15% to 20%, and that’s from last year, which was down from 2021… It’s a snowball. And those numbers are worse than they appear as 15% of the current home sales are institutional buyers for investment, paying cash, and renting out the properties. But because of the extreme shortage of properties available, values are still going up. That’s screwing with rental prices drastically.

                                        On top of the renters, you have roughly 20 percent of households that have either acquired new mortgages over the past 2 years with extremely higher interest rates and another 5% with existing ARMS whose rates and payments have nearly doubled. Even those with existing fixed rate mortgages are stuck… They can’t refinance or take out HELOC’s due to the rates. This has another effect on the construction industry as home remodeling, additions, etc… are stalled. This has another effect on job mobility as workers can’t afford to move to take another job…

                                        Much of the growth shown over the last two quarters has been generated by Governmental growth and spending. That is simply not sustainable.

                                        To @Doctor-Phibes and others pointing out that inflation has dropped… Think of a car driving at 65 MPH. Suddenly it accelerates to 80 over the course of 1 mile. Now it’s accelerates to 85 over the course of the next mile. The rate of acceleration is 1/3 what it was, but we’re still at 85 MPH and increasing…

                                        The Brad

                                        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • JollyJ Jolly

                                          @Doctor-Phibes said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                          That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                          That's Ax reasoning. Look at a 90 day chart and then extrapolate to reach whatever conclusion is desired.

                                          People look back at pre-COVID and then they look at prices now. Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                          Doctor PhibesD Online
                                          Doctor PhibesD Online
                                          Doctor Phibes
                                          wrote on last edited by Doctor Phibes
                                          #101

                                          @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          @Doctor-Phibes said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          @Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:

                                          the inflation Biden has not been able to tamp down.

                                          That's simply not true. Inflation is way lower than it was. I don't think it's got much to do with Biden, but it is significantly lower.

                                          That's Ax reasoning. Look at a 90 day chart and then extrapolate to reach whatever conclusion is desired.

                                          People look back at pre-COVID and then they look at prices now. Most - rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) - place a lot of blame on The Resident.

                                          Well, we went through a period of very high inflation, so obviously prices are higher now than they were. But inflation is much lower than it was. Anybody who thinks that means prices should go back to what they were before doesn't understand what inflation actually is. They're never going back to what they were before.

                                          Some people seem to have a hard time distinguishing between 'inflation' and 'prices'.

                                          I was only joking

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